[Index]
Tropical Cyclone MELANIE-BELLAMINE
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone MELANIE-BELLAMINE [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTXS21 PGTW 961028 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 282051Z OCT 96//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS OF 8.0S8 98.3E0 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281930Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.2S0 98.5E2. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. AN AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS APPEARED OVER
THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN
ALL QUADRANTS FAVORING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE EQUATOR ARE HELPING TO SUSTAIN
AND TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 292100Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961029 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z1 --- 9.4S3 97.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S3 97.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 10.0S1 95.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 11.0S2 93.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 11.6S8 90.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 11.8S0 88.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290300Z4 POSITION 9.6S5 96.5E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7
(DTG 291353Z3) AND 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2). THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 282051Z OCT
96 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 282100).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 09 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961029 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 02 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z4 --- 9.2S1 96.5E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S1 96.5E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z3 --- 10.0S1 96.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 10.5S6 96.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 10.8S9 95.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 11.1S3 93.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
291500Z7 POSITION 9.4S3 96.6E1
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 29/1204Z AND ANIMATED VISUAL
IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATES THAT TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05S (TC05S) HAS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. THIS POSITION
WAS FURTHER NORTH THAN WAS INDICATED ON THE PREVIOUS
WARNING, HENCE THE RELOCATION. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40
TO 50NM TO THE SOUTHWEST THE CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 05S
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD IN LIGHT STEERING
FLOW FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING
MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 10 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 (DTG 300153Z2) AND
301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961030 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 03
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z3 --- 10.4S5 96.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 96.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z6 --- 11.1S3 96.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 11.4S6 96.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 11.6S8 95.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 11.6S8 94.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
300300Z6 POSITION 10.6S7 96.7E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
OVERALL SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY, AND CURVATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES APPEARS TO BE TIGHTENING, WHICH MAY INDICATE THE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO GET STRONGER. OUR
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 2923330Z2 SATELLITE
IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING 35 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK T2.5).
WE ANTICIPATE MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
SLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW INDUCED BY A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS. BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS STEERING FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER DUE TO THE SLOWLY SHIFTING
RIDGE AXIS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WESTWARD MOTION
APPROACHING A MORE AVERAGE TRANSLATIONAL SPEED. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 (DTG 301353Z5) AND 310300Z7 (DTG
310153Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z3 IS
10 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961030 15:00z CORRECTED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 04A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z6 --- 10.5S6 96.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 96.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z4 --- 10.9S0 95.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 11.2S4 95.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 11.4S6 94.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 11.5S7 92.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
301500Z9 POSITION 10.6S7 96.0E5
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 301130Z SHOWS THAT TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05S IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AT 2 KNOTS.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM
30/0334Z. TC 05S HAS NOT INTENSIFIED GREATLY DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS, AS ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON A 301152Z SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS
INDICATING 35 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK T2.5) AS WELL AS DATA
FROM COCOS ISLAND (WMO 96996) JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING VERY WEAK
STEERING FLOW, HOWEVER OUR COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE SOME
SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 11 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 (DTG 310153Z3) AND
311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6). JUSTIFICATION: CORRECTS CURRENT
SEA HEIGHT.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961031 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z4 --- 10.4S5 95.4E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 95.4E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z7 --- 10.4S5 94.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 10.4S5 94.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 10.4S5 93.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 10.4S5 92.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
310300Z7 POSITION 10.4S5 95.3E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 302330Z1
INDICATES TC 05S HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS, AND OUR WARNING INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THIS IMAGERY (DVORAK T2.5). MOTION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WARNING PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW DUE TO WEAK STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 (DTG 311353Z6) AND 010300Z4
(DTG 010153Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310000Z4 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961031 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z7 --- 10.1S2 95.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S2 95.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 9.9S8 94.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 9.8S7 93.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 9.8S7 92.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 9.8S7 90.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z0 POSITION 10.0S1 95.0E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS. TC 05S HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SLOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z4 (DTG 010153Z0) AND 011500Z7 (DTG 011353Z3).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z7 IS 18 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961101 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- 9.8S7 94.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S7 94.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 9.9S8 93.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 10.1S2 92.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 10.2S3 91.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 10.1S2 90.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION 9.8S7 93.8E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM HAS FLUCTUATED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON
VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY ANALYSES INDICATING 45 KNOT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS (DVORAK T3.0). WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
A DRY SLOT OF SUBSIDING AIR NORTHEAST OF THE TC 05S IS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR, INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGES WITH
A SHARPLY DEFINED EDGE WHERE THE CLOUD SHIELD OF TC 05S
IS BEING AFFECTED. CIRRUS PLUMES FROM CONVECTION ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER NORTHEAST ARE BLOWING INTO THIS
AREA AND EVAPORATING. BECAUSE OF THIS SIGNIFICANT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WE ANTICIPATE THAT TC 05S WILL
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IT IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN
A REGION OF MINIMAL STEERING FLOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
AXIS TO DEVELOP WELL BEYOND THE PERIOD OF OUR FORECAST
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TC 05S TO MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTWARD
SEVERAL DAYS FROM NOW AND POTENTIALLY TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7 (DTG
011353Z3) AND 020300Z5 (DTG 020153Z1). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961101 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- 9.2S1 90.4E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S1 90.4E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 9.1S0 87.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 9.1S0 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 9.1S0 82.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 8.5S3 80.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION 9.2S1 89.8E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) IS TRACKING WESTWARD IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ON TC 05S
HAS RELAXED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
REGAIN ORGANIZATION AND TO INTENSIFY. OUR WIND RADII ARE
BASED ON 01/1123Z MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSM/I) AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 05S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD AND TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG
020153Z1) AND 021500Z8 (DTG 021353Z4). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961102 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- 8.6S4 88.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S4 88.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 8.3S1 86.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 8.2S0 84.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 8.2S0 82.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 8.4S2 81.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION 8.5S3 87.7E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) CONTINUES TO TRACK
WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8 (DTG
021351Z2) AND 030300Z6 (DTG 030151Z0). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 21 FEET. REFER TO
WWIO30 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961102 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z5 --- 8.6S4 87.8E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S4 87.8E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 8.7S5 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 8.8S6 85.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 9.2S1 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 9.8S7 82.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION 8.6S4 87.6E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND TAKE A
MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK BY THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POSITION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 (DTG 030153Z2) AND 031500Z9
(DTG 031353Z5). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z5 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961103 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- 9.6S5 87.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S5 87.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 10.3S4 86.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 11.0S2 86.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 11.6S8 85.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 12.3S6 85.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION 9.8S7 87.0E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY
AND CONTINUE TURNING GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z9 (DTG 031353Z5) AND 040300Z7
(DTG 040153Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
030000Z IS 21 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961103 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- 10.3S4 86.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S4 86.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 10.9S0 85.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 11.5S7 85.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 12.3S6 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 13.0S4 85.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION 10.4S5 86.4E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND
BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE 24-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 (DTG
040153Z3) AND 041500Z0 (DTG 041353Z6). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS 21 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961104 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- 10.4S5 85.3E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 85.3E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 10.7S8 84.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 11.1S3 83.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 11.6S8 82.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 12.4S7 82.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION 10.5S6 85.0E3
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATES THAT TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFIED AND NOW HAS A
13 NM DIAMETER EYE. CURRENT INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 100 KNOTS. TC 05S IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED USING SATELLITE SCATTEROME
TRY
DATA FROM 031734Z. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 (DTG 041353Z6) AND 050300Z8 (DTG
050153Z4).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961104 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR
014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- 10.5S6 85.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S6 85.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 10.8S9 84.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 11.3S5 83.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 12.1S4 82.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 12.9S2 81.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION 10.6S7 84.8E0
TC 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 (DTG 050153Z4)
AND 051500Z1 (DTG 051353Z7). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 21 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961105 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- 10.7S8 84.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S8 84.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 10.9S0 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 11.4S6 83.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 12.1S4 81.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 13.4S8 79.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION 10.7S8 84.4E6
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 042330Z INDICATES THAT TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS CONTINUING TO DRIFT
TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 03 KNOTS. THIS IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES THAT TC05S IS AT OR NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY.
FORECAST IS FOR AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WHILE
TURNING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS IT WEAKENS SLOWLY.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 (DTG 051353Z7) AND 060300Z9
(DTG 060153Z5). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 26 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961105 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR
016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- 10.8S9 83.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S9 83.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 11.2S4 82.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 11.7S9 81.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 12.5S8 79.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 13.5S9 78.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION 10.9S0 83.0E1
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 051030Z INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE
05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN
INTENSITY AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC05S IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
SLIGHTLY IN ITS FORWARD MOTION AND TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 (DTG 060153Z5) AND
061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 051200Z IS 26 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961106 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR
017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- 11.5S7 82.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 82.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 12.1S4 80.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 12.8S1 79.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 13.3S7 77.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 14.9S4 75.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION 11.7S9 81.9E8
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 052329Z AND 052230Z INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) HAS INCREASED
ITS FORWARD SPEED TO 07 KNOTS. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF BETWEEN
100 AND 115 KNOTS (DVORAK T5.5 TO T6.0). TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS THE SAME FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST; EXPECT CONTINUED
SLOW ACCELERATION WITH A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AS TC05S BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE MID-INDIAN
OCEAN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 (DTG 061353Z8) AND
070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060000Z IS 26 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961106 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR
018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- 11.8S0 80.5E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 80.5E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 12.3S6 79.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 12.9S2 77.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 14.0S5 76.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 15.9S5 74.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION 11.9S1 80.1E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 061130Z1
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING WINDS BETWEEN 100
AND 115 KNOTS (DVORAK T5.5/6.0) TAPERED DOWNWARD FOR A
SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
OUR FORECAST IS FOR TC 05S TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM AND BEGIN A GRADUAL ARC TO
THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z0 (DTG 070153Z6) AND 071500Z3 (DTG 071353Z9).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 23 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961107 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING
NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- 12.4S7 78.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 78.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 13.2S6 76.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 14.6S1 75.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 16.2S9 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 17.9S7 72.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION 12.6S9 78.2E7
TC 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10
KNOTS. TC 05S IS EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST TC 05S TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY THIS FEATURE AND
TRACK MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE
WARNING. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 (DTG 071351Z7) AND
080300Z1 (DTG 080151Z5). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 070000Z IS 23 FEET. REFER TO WWPIO31 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961107 15:00z CORRECTED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 020A
CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- 13.2S6 77.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 77.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 14.2S7 76.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 15.5S1 75.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 16.8S5 74.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 18.2S1 74.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION 13.5S9 77.0E4
TC 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. TC 05S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
SOUTHWARD TURN AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 (DTG 080153Z7)
AND 081500Z4 (DTG 081353Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 23 FEET. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR:
CORRECTED THE WARNING NUMBER.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961108 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING
NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- 14.7S2 76.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 76.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 16.0S7 76.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 17.2S0 75.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 18.5S4 75.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 19.7S7 75.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION 15.0S6 76.3E6
TC 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENT
SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW TC 05S TO HAVE
A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS (DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 6.5). ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
WEAKENING TREND FOR TC 05S WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 081500Z4 (DTG 081353Z0) AND 090300Z2 (DTG 090153Z8).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 24 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961108 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR
022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- 16.0S7 76.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 76.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 17.2S0 77.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 18.5S4 78.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 19.6S6 79.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 20.3S5 81.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION 16.3S0 77.1E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT RECURVES TO
THE EAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 (DTG 090153Z8) AND
091500Z5 (DTG 091353Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 081200Z IS 24 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961109 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- 17.7S5 78.3E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S5 78.3E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 19.0S0 80.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 20.2S4 82.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 21.4S7 84.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 23.6S1 83.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION 18.0S9 78.8E3
TC 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
13 KNOTS. MELANIE=S POSITION IS BASED ON A 08/2330Z
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE, AND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT ON A 08/1922Z SSM/I IMAGE FROM
DMSP F-10. INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE DERIVED
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 5.5 (100 KNOTS).
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS WEAKENED,
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS DECREASED, AND HAS BECOME
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MELANIE IS APPROACHING A
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, AND THE
LEFTWARD TURN BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS IS A REPRESENTATION
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SHEARING AWAY FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION. EVEN SO, THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TAKE A FEW
DAYS TO DIMINISH BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 091500Z5 (DTG 091351Z9) AND 100300Z4 (DTG 100151Z8).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 26 FEET.
REFER TO WWIO31 PGFW FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961109 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR
024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- 19.2S2 79.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 79.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 20.5S7 80.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 21.8S1 80.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 23.2S7 80.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 24.3S9 80.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
020 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION 19.5S5 79.9E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
IT HAS BEGUN TO SHEAR APART AND WEAKEN. CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATING 77 KNOT
WINDS (DVORAK CI 4.5). WIND RADII ARE BASED UPON
EXTRAPOLATION OF SCATTEROMETRY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4
(DTG 100153Z0) AND 101500Z7 (DTG 101353Z3). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 21 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961110 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR
025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- 22.1S5 79.5E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 79.5E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 25.3S0 78.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
055 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 28.5S5 78.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 30.6S9 81.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 32.3S8 84.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION 22.9S3 79.2E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TC 05S HAS BECOME SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. TC 05S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 (DTG 101353Z3) AND 110300Z5 (DTG
110153Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS
18 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961110 15:00z CORRECTED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR 026A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- 22.0S4 78.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 78.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 22.5S9 76.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 24.3S9 75.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 27.1S0 75.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 29.3S4 77.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION 22.1S5 77.7E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN AT 08 KNOTS. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF 25 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK
CI 1.5) BUT DUE TO THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM WE
HAVE KEPT THE WARNING INTENSITY HIGHER SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THE
WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS SPUN DOWN AS QUICKLY AS THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE INDICATES. NEXT WARNING AT 110300Z5 (DTG
110153Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 15 FEET.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION:CORRECT WARNING NUMBER.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 961111 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) WARNING NR
027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- 22.5S9 77.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S9 77.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 23.2S7 76.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION 22.7S1 77.1E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (MELANIE-BELLAMINE) IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TC 05S IS
FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 12-HOUR FORECAST
POSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 11/0000Z2 IS
15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
|
Document: melanie.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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