[Index]
Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone OPHELIA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTXS23 PGTW 961214 07:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 140655Z DEC 96//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/140351Z DEC 96//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1S2
111.6E9 TO 10.6S7 102.3E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
140330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2 108.1E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST
OF JAVA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
INDICATED BY ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER-
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS UNDER WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM=S DEVELOPMENT IS BEING ENHANCED BY
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG THE EQUATOR. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 150700Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961214 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- 10.0S1 107.6E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S1 107.6E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 10.1S2 106.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 10.3S4 105.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 10.4S5 104.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 10.6S7 103.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
010 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION 10.0S1 107.3E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (TC 11S) HAS FORMED SOUTH OF JAVA
AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT O6 KNOTS. CURRENT MOTION AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM ARE BASED ON 141130Z INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
25 KNOTS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AT
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE TO 55 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS. TC 11S IS
FORECAST TO GENERALLY MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU 140655Z DEC 96
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS23 PGTW 140700 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 10 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 (DTG 150155Z7) AND 151500Z2 (DTG
151355Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961215 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- 10.0S1 107.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S1 107.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 10.0S1 107.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 10.1S2 106.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 10.1S2 106.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 10.3S4 105.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION 10.0S1 107.6E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (TC 11S) IS QUASI-STATIONARY
SOUTHEAST OF JAVA. TC 11S IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF VERY
WEAK STEERING FLOW. WE EXPECT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AND FOR TC 11S TO
SLOWLY BEGIN TO TRACK WESTWARD. CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A 14/2330Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45
KNOTS (DVORAK T3.0). TC 11S HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS AND WE EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE
DUE TO THE SYSTEM=S SMALL SIZE, LOCATION IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH, AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. CURRENT AND
FORECASTED WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A
SMALLER THAN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 151500Z2 (DTG 151355Z0) AND 160300Z0 (DTG 160155Z8).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961215 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- 10.4S5 108.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S5 108.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 10.5S6 109.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 10.7S8 109.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 10.9S0 110.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 11.4S6 111.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION 10.4S5 108.9E8
THIS WARNING IS RELOCATED BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A SATELLITE DERIVED INTENSITY ANALYSIS (DVORAK T3.0).
CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALLER
THAN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE FORECAST FOR
OPHELIA HAS BEEN CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO AN
UNANTICIPATED CHANGE IN STEERING FLOW. DEEP LAYER FLOW
TOWARD THE EAST IS OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF A WEST WIND
BURST ALONG THE EQUATOR. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY AND THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0 (DTG 160155Z8) AND 161500Z3
(DTG 161355Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961216 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z7 --- 11.5S7 110.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 110.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 13.1S5 110.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 14.9S4 111.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 16.9S6 112.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 19.0S0 112.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 23.8S3 112.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
160300Z0 POSITION 11.9S1 110.4E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) IS LOCATED SOUTH OF JAVA
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY COURSE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK IS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
LONGWAVE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN NEAR 100E. TC 11S IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED IN
ACCORDANCE WITH OUR DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. TC 11S IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BEYOND 65 KNOTS DUE TO FORECASTED
UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU) HAS BEGUN SIX-
HOURLY WARNINGS ON THIS SYSTEM WITH A FORECAST PERIOD OF
72 HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 (DTG 160755Z4) AND
161500Z3 (DTG 161355Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160000Z7 IS 14 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961216 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- 12.2S5 111.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 111.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 14.1S6 112.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 16.0S7 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 18.2S1 113.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 20.5S7 112.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 25.0S7 111.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION 12.7S0 111.3E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF JAVA
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REMAINS THE SAME PREVIOUS WARNING. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD COURSE EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH AFTER 24 HOURS. TC
11S IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO MORE THAN 65 KNOTS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3 (DTG 161355Z1) AND 162100Z7
(DTG 161955Z7). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z3 IS 14 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961216 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z0 --- 12.7S0 111.6E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 111.6E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 14.1S6 112.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 15.6S2 113.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 17.5S3 112.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 19.3S3 112.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 22.9S3 111.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
OVER WATER
100 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
161500Z3 POSITION 13.1S5 111.8E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) HAS MAINTAINED ITS
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD. MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 161200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1 (DTG
170155Z9) AND 171500Z4 (DTG 171355Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961216 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z6 --- 13.5S9 112.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 112.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 14.9S4 112.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 16.6S3 113.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 18.1S0 112.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 19.9S9 112.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 23.6S1 111.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION 13.8S2 112.4E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) HAS MAINTAINED ITS
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND ONLY MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z1 (DTG 170155Z9), 170900Z7 (DTG
170755Z5), 171500Z4 (DTG 171355Z2), AND 172100Z1 (DTG
171955Z8).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961217 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z8 --- 13.5S9 114.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 114.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 13.9S3 115.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 14.4S9 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 15.2S8 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 16.3S0 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 18.4S3 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION 13.6S0 114.4E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST AND CLOSER TO THE EDGE
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THAN PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED. MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM. WE EXPECT TC 11S TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD
IN THE NEAR FUTURE, BUT BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO
INCREASING STEERING FLOW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE OVER
AUSTRALIA. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WE EXPECT TC
11S TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7
(DTG 170755Z5), 171500Z4 (DTG 171355Z2), 172100Z1 (DTG
171955Z8) AND 180300Z2 (DTG 180155Z0). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 18 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961217 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z4 --- 13.7S1 114.9E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 114.9E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 14.1S6 116.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 14.7S2 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 15.7S3 116.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 16.8S5 116.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 19.0S0 114.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION 13.8S2 115.3E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TC 11S IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH HAS EXPOSED THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
SHEAR IS BEING INDUCED BY A STRONG TROPICAL UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF TC
11S. OUR FORECAST IS FOR THIS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN TC 11S.
HOWEVER, THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER APPROXIMATELY 36 HOURS ALLOWING
TC 11S TO STABILIZE IN INTENSITY WHILE MOVING SOUTHWARD.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z4 (DTG 171355Z2), 172100Z1 (DTG
171955Z8), 180300Z2 (DTG 180155Z0) AND 180900Z8 (DTG
180755Z6). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS
18 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961217 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z1 --- 13.8S2 115.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 115.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 14.2S7 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 14.9S4 117.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 15.9S5 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 17.4S2 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 21.0S3 115.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
171500Z4 POSITION 13.9S3 116.1E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) IS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. TC 11S IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR WHICH IS
PREVENTING THE CONVECTION FROM BUILDING OVER THE CENTER
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH
WILL CAUSE OPHELIA TO REMAIN ON A WEAKENING TREND.
SHALLOW, MID-LEVEL, AND DEEP STEERING MODELS INDICATE
THAT TC 11S WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE 24-
HOUR FORECAST POSITION IN RESPONSE TO ENHANCED NORTHERLY
STEERING FLOW ALONG A DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS LOCATED
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z1
(DTG 171955Z8), 180300Z2 (DTG 180155Z0), 180900Z8 (DTG
180755Z6) AND 181500Z5 (DTG 181355Z3). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z1 IS 18 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961217 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- 13.4S8 116.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 116.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 13.6S0 117.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 14.4S9 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 15.3S9 117.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 16.3S0 117.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION 13.5S9 116.3E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) IS TRACKING EASTWARD IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH TC 11S IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN THE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TC 11S CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS
PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH WILL CAUSE TC
11S TO BE DISSIPATED BY THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. AS
A RESULT, THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER WILL RESUME
WARNING AT TWELVE-HOUR INTERVALS. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z8 (DTG 180755Z6) AND 182100Z2 (DTG 181955Z9).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 15 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961218 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z9 --- 13.6S0 116.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 116.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 14.3S8 117.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 15.0S6 117.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 15.8S4 117.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 16.9S6 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION 13.8S2 117.0E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS. THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PREVIOUSLY PRESENT
HAS RELAXED SLIGHTLY AND ALLOWED TC 11S TO REGAIN SOME OF
ITS ORGANIZATION. OUR WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS
SUPPORTING THE PRESENCE OF 45 KNOT WINDS (DVORAK T3.0).
WE ANTICIPATE THE WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND
CAUSE IT TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY 48 HOURS. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z5 (DTG 181355Z3) AND 190300Z3 (DTG
190155Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS
15 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961218 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z2 --- 14.0S5 117.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 117.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 14.6S1 118.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 15.6S2 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 16.6S3 117.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 17.5S3 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z5 POSITION 14.2S7 117.6E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) IS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TC 11S IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THE
SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 11S IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE 24-HOUR FORECAST
POSITION IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH SOUTH OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z3 (DTG
190155Z1) AND 191500Z6 (DTG 191355Z4). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z2 IS 15 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961219 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z0 --- 14.8S3 117.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 117.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 15.8S4 117.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 16.7S4 117.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 17.5S3 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 18.4S3 116.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z3 POSITION 15.1S7 117.7E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. CURRENT
WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 18/2330Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS (DVORAK T2.5). TC 11S HAS SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS THE
LOWER AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAVE BECOME MORE ALIGNED. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA
IS STILL PUTTING MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ON THIS SYSTEM,
RESTRICTING OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. WE BELIEVE THE UPPER-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. A LOW-PROBABILITY ALTERNATE
SCENARIO BEYOND 24 HOURS IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER TC 11S AND THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. TC 11S
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
COURSE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z6 (DTG 191355Z4) AND 200300Z5 (DTG 200155Z3).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z0 IS 13 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961219 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z3 --- 15.5S1 116.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 116.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 16.3S0 115.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 17.2S0 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z3 --- 18.2S1 113.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z6 --- 19.1S1 113.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z6 POSITION 15.7S3 115.9E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 19/0830Z SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
EXTRAPOLATION. 191200Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS OPHELIA HAS LOST ALL ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND IS
WEAKENING. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODERATE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THIS
SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z5 (DTG 200155Z3) AND 201500Z8
(DTG 201355Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS33 PGTW 961220 03:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z2 --- 14.8S3 117.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 117.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 14.9S4 116.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
200300Z5 POSITION 14.8S3 117.1E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (OPHELIA) HAS DISSIPATED AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS WHILE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAS FLUCTUATED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 20000Z2 IS 11 FEET.//
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Document: ophelia.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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