[Index]
Tropical Cyclone PANCHO-HELINDA
[Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone PANCHO-HELINDA [Australian Region][South Indian Ocean][South Pacific Ocean][Southern Hemisphere] |
WTXS21 PGTW 970118 04:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 180351Z JAN 97//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4S5
97.5E1 TO 11.6S8 95.0E4 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
180230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.3S4 97.1E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW ARE INDICATED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION APPEARS WEAK. THE WIND ESTIMATE WAS
OBTAINED FROM A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC DATA AND SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION (DVORAK T1.0).
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 190400Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 970119 01:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 190051Z JAN 97//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU/180351Z JAN 97//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
180400)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0S1
95.9E3 TO 12.6S9 91.8E8 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
182030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6S7 95.0E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS.
2. THIS ALERT RE-ISSUED EARLY DUE TO THE SYSTEM
MOVING FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS INTENSITY. CENTRAL
CONVECTION REMAINS WEAK. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 200030Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970119 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- 8.8S6 95.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S6 95.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 8.9S7 95.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 9.1S0 94.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 9.4S3 93.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 9.7S6 93.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION 8.8S6 95.6E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTH INDIAN
OCEAN. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
WARNING PERIOD. WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 19/1604Z
SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATING A CLEARLY DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 (DTG
200753Z7) AND 202100Z5 (DTG 201953Z0). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 19/1800Z9 IS 12 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU
190051Z JAN 97 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 190100).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970120 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- 9.3S2 96.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S2 96.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 9.6S5 96.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 10.3S4 96.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 11.1S3 95.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 11.8S0 94.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION 9.4S3 96.0E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY.
DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES IT SLOWED DOWN AND MADE A DRASTIC COURSE
CHANGE. BECAUSE OF THIS CHANGE IN MOVEMENT THIS WARNING
IS INDICATED AS A RELOCATED WARNING. OUR CURRENT WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED UPON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ANALYSIS SUPPORTING THE PRESENCE OF 45 KNOT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS (DVORAK T3.0). CLIMATOLOGICAL AND
DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE FORECAST GUIDANCE AGREE THAT THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS TC 19S SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD, WHILE CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 (DTG 201953Z0)
AND 210900Z2 (DTG 210753Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 12 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970120 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z1 --- 10.9S0 96.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 96.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 11.9S1 95.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 12.5S8 94.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 12.6S9 93.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 12.5S8 91.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
105 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION 11.2S4 96.1E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO) IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD IN
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. PANCHO HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. COCOS ISLAND (WMO 96996), CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER, IS REPORTING WINDS OF
30 KNOTS WITH A STATION PRESSURE OF 1004.8 MB. PANCHO IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING WESTWARD NEAR THE 24-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION AND TO INTENSIFY. NEXT WARNINGS AT
10900Z2 (DTG 210753Z8) AND 212100Z6 (DTG 211953Z1).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 20/1800Z1 IS 18 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970121 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z9 --- 12.0S3 94.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S3 94.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 12.7S0 93.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 13.3S7 91.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 13.6S0 89.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 13.9S3 87.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION 12.2S5 94.3E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND NOW DISPLAYS AN
11 NM EYE. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 (DTG 211953Z1) AND
220900Z3 (DTG 220753Z9). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210600Z IS 21 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970121 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- 12.4S7 93.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 93.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 13.0S4 91.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 13.7S1 89.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 14.3S8 87.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 14.8S3 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION 12.6S9 92.5E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO) IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS. WARNING INTENSITY (115 KNOTS) AND
POSITION ARE BASED ON 211730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CURRENT 35 KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING
210325Z SATELLITE SCATTEROMETRY DATA. TROPICAL CYCLONE
19S HAS INTENSIFIED MUCH MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY. PANCHO IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN THE SAME GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 24 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
20S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z3 (DTG 220753Z9) AND 222100Z7
(DTG 221953Z2).//
=========================================================================
warning 006 not available
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970122 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z3 --- 13.5S9 90.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S9 90.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 13.9S3 89.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 14.3S8 87.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 14.6S1 86.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 14.8S3 85.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION 13.6S0 89.8E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO) IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 221730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. PANCHO
HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS IT EXPERIENCES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
FROM THE EAST. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S HAS SLOWED ITS
FORWARD MOTION IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAK STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PANCHO
MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO ITS WEST-
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH MAY
HELP TO KEEP ITS MOTION SLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 23 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
20S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z4 (DTG 230753Z0) AND 232100Z8
(DTG 231953Z3).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970123 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z1 --- 13.4S8 89.5E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 89.5E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 13.6S0 88.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 13.8S2 88.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 14.0S5 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 14.2S7 85.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION 13.5S9 89.3E0
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. IT HAS REACHED PEAK INTENSITY
AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT
23/0530Z INDICATE THE EYE, WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 20 TO
25 NM IN DIAMETER, HAS BEGUN TO FILL WITH CLOUDS. THE
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS BEGUN TO WARM,
INDICATING THE CONVECTION IS NOT AS INTENSE AS IT HAS
BEEN PREVIOUSLY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 (DTG 231953Z3)
AND 240900Z5 (DTG 240753Z1). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 230600Z1 IS 22 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970123 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z4 --- 13.9S3 89.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 89.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 14.3S8 88.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 14.5S0 87.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 14.6S1 87.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 14.7S2 86.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
070NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION 14.0S5 89.1E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING BUT REMAINS AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND TO
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z5 (DTG 240753Z1) AND 242100Z9 (DTG 241953Z4).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 23/1800Z4 IS 20 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) AND TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ILETTA) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970124 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- 14.0S5 89.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 89.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 14.5S0 90.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 15.0S6 89.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 15.6S2 88.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 16.6S3 87.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION 14.1S6 89.9E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 02 KNOTS. THE NEAREST OF
THE TWO OTHER SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONES IS TC
21S (ILETTA) WHICH IS OVER 1500 NM TO THE WEST OF TC 19S.
TC 19S HAS PEAKED AND IS ON A WEAKENING TREND. THE EYE
HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED AND THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 (DTG 241953Z4) AND 250900Z6
(DTG 250753Z2). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z2 IS 21 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ILETTA) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970124 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- 14.5S0 90.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 90.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 15.1S7 90.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 15.6S2 89.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 16.0S7 89.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 16.4S1 88.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION 14.7S2 90.6E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WHICH IS CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN. TC 19S IS
FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 250900Z6 (DTG 250753Z2) AND 252100Z0 (DTG 251953Z5).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 24/1800Z5 IS 18 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) AND TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ILETTA) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970125 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z3 --- 14.3S8 91.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S8 91.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 14.4S9 91.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 14.6S1 91.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 14.9S4 91.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 15.9S5 90.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION 14.3S8 91.1E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM NOW DISPLAYS
9 NM DIAMETER EYE. FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z0 (DTG 251953Z5) AND
260900Z7 (DTG 260753Z3). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PGFW
FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
21S (ILETA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970125 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z6 --- 14.4S9 90.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 90.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 14.6S1 90.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 14.8S3 90.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 14.9S4 89.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 15.1S7 88.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION 14.5S0 90.6E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOT AND IS QUASI-STATIONARY. WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 251730Z INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
WEAK STEERING FLOW IN A WEAKENED PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS WELL
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z7 (DTG 260753Z3) AND 262100Z1 (DTG 261953Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970126 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- 14.5S0 90.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 90.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 14.5S0 90.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 14.4S9 90.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 14.5S0 89.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 14.6S1 89.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION 14.5S0 90.6E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS QUASI-
STATIONARY. FORECAST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AND
ERRATIC DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW; HOWEVER, ANTICIPATE A
WESTWARD DRIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 (DTG 261953Z6) AND
270900Z8 (DTG 270753Z4). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260600Z IS 21 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ILETTA) WARNINGS
(WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970126 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO) WARNING NR 015
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- 14.4S9 90.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 90.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 14.3S8 89.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 14.2S7 89.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 14.0S5 88.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 13.7S1 88.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION 14.4S9 90.0E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS CURRENTLY MOVING
WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. CURRENT WARNING POSITION AND
SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS ARE BASED
ON 261730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
19S IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLOW DRIFT TO THE
WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A TREND
TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE INTENSITY TREND IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING TO REFLECT
STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT PRESENT.
PANCHO-HELINDA NOW HAS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AND SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING RAPIDLY DURING THE
FIRST 24 HOURS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TOWARD 48
HOURS AS LESS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED THEN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 19 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z8 (DTG 270753Z4) AND 272100Z2 (DTG
271953Z7).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970127 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- 12.8S1 90.8E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S1 90.8E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 12.1S4 91.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 11.6S8 91.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 11.3S5 90.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 11.5S7 89.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION 12.6S9 90.9E8
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY,
THEN MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 (DTG 271953Z7) AND 280900Z9 (DTG
280753Z5). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS
18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ILETTA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970127 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- 11.6S8 91.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S8 91.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 10.7S8 91.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 10.6S7 90.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 10.8S9 89.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 11.0S2 88.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION 11.4S6 91.2E2
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9 (DTG 280753Z5) AND 282100Z3
(DTG 281953Z8). TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS
CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. WARNING
POSITION AND INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS ARE BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF 271432Z AND 271730Z INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD
THE WEST WITHIN 24 HOURS AS ITS STEERING FLOW CHANGES
ONCE AGAIN. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
RELAXES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 18
FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (ILETTA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970128 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- 9.9S8 91.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S8 91.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 9.4S3 91.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 9.0S9 90.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 8.9S7 89.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 8.8S6 89.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION 9.8S7 91.2E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS TRACKING
NORTHWARD AT 9 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
TRACKING WESTWARD AND TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE WARNING
PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z3 (DTG 281953Z8) AND
290900Z0 (DTG 290753Z6). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 28/0600Z6 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) AND TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 21S (ILETTA) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
warning 019 not available
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970129 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- 10.7S8 93.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S8 93.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 11.5S7 92.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 12.4S7 91.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 13.2S6 90.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 13.9S3 88.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION 10.9S0 92.8E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. TC 20S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD BEYOND THE
24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
AND TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z4 (DTG 291953Z9) AND 300900Z2 (DTG
300753Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 29/0600Z7
IS 16 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970129 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 021
RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z0 --- 12.5S8 93.3E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 93.3E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z9 --- 14.0S5 92.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 15.2S8 92.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 16.1S8 91.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 17.0S8 90.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
292100Z4 POSITION 12.9S2 93.2E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. OUR WARNING INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
ANALYSIS AT 29/1730Z (DVORAK T3.0). TC 19S IS NOW
MOVING IN A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL DIRECTION, AND WE
EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE DOING SO THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING
AGAIN NEAR THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300900Z2 (DTG 300753Z8) AND 302100Z6 (DTG 301953Z1).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z0 IS 16 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970130 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z9 --- 14.0S5 91.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 91.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z2 --- 14.6S1 90.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 15.1S7 89.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 15.3S9 88.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 15.4S0 87.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
300900Z2 POSITION 14.2S7 91.6E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD=
HOWEVER, AFTER 24 HOURS, STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 302100Z6 (DTG 301951Z9) AND 310900Z3 (DTG 310751Z7).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970130 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z2 --- 14.9S4 90.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S4 90.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z0 --- 15.5S1 88.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 15.8S4 87.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 16.0S7 86.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 16.0S7 86.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
065 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
302100Z6 POSITION 15.1S7 89.7E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON 301730Z INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A SATELLITE-
DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S
IS STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY HEAD WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AND SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION. PANCHO-HELINDA IS ALSO
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z3 (DTG
310753Z9) AND 312100Z7 (DTG 311953Z2).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970131 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z0 --- 15.4S0 88.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 88.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z3 --- 15.8S4 87.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 16.2S9 85.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 16.5S2 84.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 17.0S8 83.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
310900Z3 POSITION 15.5S1 88.3E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD. SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SLOW NEAR THE
48 HOUR POSITION AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z7
(DTG 311953Z2) AND 010900Z0 (DTG 010753Z6). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 17 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRETELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970131 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z3 --- 15.0S6 87.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
015 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 87.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z7 --- 15.1S7 86.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
025 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 15.6S2 84.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 16.0S7 83.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 16.8S5 83.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
030 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
312100Z7 POSITION 15.0S6 87.0E5
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS. CURRENT WARNING POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS ARE BASED ON 311730Z INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY
ANALYSIS, RESPECTIVELY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN MAINTAIN ABOUT
THE SAME INTENSITY. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S IS FORECAST TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH, THEN SOUTHEAST WITHIN 36 HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A CHANGE IN STEERING FLOW DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF A MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z0 (DTG 010753Z6) AND 012100Z4 (DTG
011953Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970201 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z7 --- 15.2S8 85.8E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 85.8E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z0 --- 15.3S9 84.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 15.8S4 83.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 16.6S3 82.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 17.5S3 82.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
010900Z0 POSITION 15.2S8 85.4E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD IN THE STANDARD/DOMINANT
RIDGE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND TO INTENSIFY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4 (DTG
011953Z9) AND 020900Z1 (DTG 020753Z7). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 01/0600Z7 IS 20 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970201 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- 15.2S8 85.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 85.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 15.7S3 84.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 16.5S2 83.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 17.4S2 82.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 18.4S3 82.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION 15.3S9 84.9E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSES
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS LIE WITHIN THE 100 TO
115 KNOT RANGE (DVORAK T5.5 TO T6.0) AND OUR WARNING
INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THIS DATA. TC 19S IS FORECAST
TO REACH ITS SECOND PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS (THE FIRST PEAK INTENSITY WITH THIS SYSTEM OCCURRED
ON 23 JAN 97 AT APPROXIMATELY 125 KNOTS, AND IT WEAKENED
TO 45 KNOTS OR LESS WHILE MOVING EQUATORWARD). TC 19S
LIES WITHIN THE DOMINANT RIDGE REGION OF THE STANDARD
SYNOPTIC PATTERN, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO
THE WEAKENED RIDGE REGION THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1 (DTG 020753Z7)
AND 022100Z5 (DTG 021953Z0). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 21 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970202 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z8 --- 16.0S7 85.3E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 85.3E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 16.7S4 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 17.5S3 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
100 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 18.3S2 85.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 19.3S3 85.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
050 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
020900Z1 POSITION 16.2S9 85.3E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 3 KNOTS EQUATORWARD OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE DOMINANT RIDGE REGION OF THE
STANDARD SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115
KNOTS). TC 19S IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEAKENED RIDGE
REGION OF THE STANDARD SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND TO WEAKEN BEYOND THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z5 (DTG 021953Z0) AND 030900Z2 (DTG
030753Z8). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 02/0600Z8
IS 22 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970202 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z1 --- 17.3S1 85.3E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 85.3E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 18.8S7 85.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 20.1S3 85.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 21.5S8 84.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 22.9S3 84.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
022100Z5 POSITION 17.7S5 85.3E6
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD
AT 08 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 19S HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND OUR WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES IN THE
100 TO 115 KNOT RANGE (DVORAK CI 5.5 TO 6.0). TC 19S IS
MOVING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH 48 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME IT SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z2 (DTG 030753Z8) AND 032100Z6 (DTG 031953Z1).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 20 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970203 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z9 --- 17.5S3 85.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 85.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 18.3S2 85.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
095 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 19.4S4 85.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 20.5S7 84.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 21.9S2 84.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
035 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
075 NM ELSEWHERE
---
REMARKS:
030900Z2 POSITION 17.7S5 85.6E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. WATER VAPOR
DERIVED WINDS AND ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE WARNING INTENSITY OF
95 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF SLIGHTLY LESS THAN T5.5 (100 KNOTS). THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEAKENED
RIDGE REGION OF THE STANDARD SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND TO
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 032100Z6 (DTG 031953Z1) AND 040900Z3 (DTG 040753Z9).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 03/0600Z9 IS 20
FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970203 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- 18.4S3 86.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S3 86.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 19.3S3 86.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 20.4S6 86.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
070 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 21.5S8 85.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
060 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 22.5S9 82.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION 18.6S5 86.5E9
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 K
NOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGER (SSM/I) DATA IN
DICATE TC 19S HAS BEGUN TO SHEAR APART DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL NORTH
EASTERLY WINDS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION BEGIN
TO SEPARATE TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 (DTG 040753Z9) AND 042100Z7 (DTG 041953Z2).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 18 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970204 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 032
RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- 18.3S2 86.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 86.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 19.6S6 86.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
040 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 20.3S5 85.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.8S0 83.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.2S5 81.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION 18.6S5 86.8E2
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING SOUTHWARD
AT 05 KNOTS. THIS WARNING IS RELOCATED BASED ON 040530Z
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
A SATELLITE-DERIVED CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS USING
VISIBLE AND INFRARED 040530Z SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19S HAS LOST ALL ITS DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS SHALLOW STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE GOVERNS ITS MOTION. A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BEYOND 24 HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE
19S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER WITHIN 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 (DTG 041953Z2) AND 050900Z4 (DTG
050753Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970204 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- 19.3S3 86.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
045 NM ELSEWHERE
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
090 NM ELSEWHERE
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 86.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 20.1S3 85.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
085 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.9S1 84.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
080 NM ELSEWHERE
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.8S1 83.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 22.5S9 81.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION 19.5S5 86.0E4
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 06 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
NOT WELL-DEFINED IN ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS REMOVED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN
A MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM=S INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, THE TRACK FOR TC 19S
(PANCHO-HELINDA) IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS
IT BECOMES INFLUENCED BY SHALLOW AND MID LAYER
NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4
(DTG 050753Z0) AND 052100Z8 (DTG 051953Z3).MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 19 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970205 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- 19.9S9 85.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S9 85.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 20.9S1 84.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 21.8S1 82.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 22.5S9 80.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 22.8S2 78.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION 20.2S4 84.9E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 06 KNOTS. WARNING POSITION AND CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS ARE BASED ON 050530Z VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND
HAS SPUN OFF A SMALLER SECONDARY LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
TO THE NORTH. PANCHO-HELINDA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
DISSIPATING AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN SHALLOW
STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER WITHIN 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 (DTG 051953Z3) AND 060900Z5
(DTG 060753Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970205 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- 20.4S6 84.0E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S6 84.0E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.8S0 82.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.1S4 80.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION 20.5S7 83.6E7
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 06 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
NOT WELL-DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT HAS
LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE, THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON 051703Z SATELLITE-BASED
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) DATA, WHICH DISPLAYS A WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 (DTG 060753Z1). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 15 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 970206 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- 20.6S8 80.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 80.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.0S3 78.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION 20.7S9 80.3E1
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (PANCHO-HELINDA) IS TRACKING
WESTWARD IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A CLEARLY DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH MOST OF THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN WEST GU). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2
IS 15 FEET.//
|
Document: pancho.htm
Updated: 26th December 2006 |
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