[Index]
Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary March 2005
[Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett]
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Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary March 2005 [Summaries and Track Data] [Prepared by Gary Padgett] |
MONTHLY GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY
MARCH, 2005
(For general comments about the nature of these summaries, as well as
information on how to download the tabular cyclone track files, see
the Author's Note at the end of this summary.)
SPECIAL NOTE: Recently I received an e-mail from Sheldon Kusselson at
SSD informing me of some links to add to the links section I recently
began including in each summary. Additional tropical satellite imagery
along with looping ability for composite microwave imagery for the
Western Hemisphere north of the equator can be found at:
(1) For the Eastern North Pacific:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html>
(2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html>
(A special thanks to Sheldon for sending me this information.)
*************************************************************************
MARCH HIGHLIGHTS
--> Long-lived Australian cyclone reaches Category 5 status three times
and makes landfalls in Queensland, Northern Territory and Western
Australia
--> First Northwest Pacific typhoon of 2005 forms and makes landfall in
the Philippines
--> One cyclone each in Southwest and Southeast Indian Ocean basins
*************************************************************************
***** Feature of the Month for March *****
WESTERN HEMISPHERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES for 2005
Tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and
Caribbean Sea are assigned names by the Tropical Prediction Center/
National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. A separate alphabetical
set of alternating male/female names is used each year with the name
of the first tropical storm beginning with the letter "A". Names are
repeated every six years. The names of hurricanes which cause a lot
of damage and/or fatalities are usually retired from the list with
another name of the same alphabetical rank and gender replacing it.
Following the 2004 season, the names Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne
were retired and have been replaced in the list for 2010 with Colin,
Fiona, Igor and Julia, respectively.
The highest number of tropical storms named in one season in the
Atlantic was 19 during the very active 1995 season. The most active
Atlantic tropical cyclone season on record was 1933, in which 21 storms
were charted, but of course that season pre-dates the formal naming of
tropical cyclones. The active 1969 season is credited with 17 tropical
cyclones (plus one subtropical storm), but only 13 were actually named
operationally. Several of the systems began as hybrid/subtropical
storms and forecasters at the time were still debating how to classify
this type of storm system, and so they remained unnamed. A few years
later several tracks were added to the official Best Tracks database.
Two of these unnamed storms were hurricanes, thus giving 1969 a total
of 12 hurricanes--the current record for the Atlantic.
The list of names for 2005 is the same one used during the active
hurricane season of 1999 when twelve tropical cyclones were named.
Floyd and Lenny were the destructive hurricanes of 1999, and those
names have been replaced with Franklin and Lee in the list for 2005.
TPC/NHC also has warning responsibility for the Eastern North
Pacific Ocean from the west coast of Mexico out to longitude 140W.
Six separate alphabetical sets of names are used for this basin in
the same manner as in the Atlantic. Initially, the Eastern Pacific
name sets contained only 21 names, omitting "Q" and "U" and ending
with the letter "W", as in the Atlantic. When the active 1985 season
threatened to exhaust the list, the names Xina, York and Zelda were
drafted to accommodate any additional storms which might develop.
(Hurricane Xina was named in late October, 1985.) The decision was
made sometime in the latter 1980s to extend the list with these three
names in odd-numbered years, and to add the names Xavier, Yolanda and
Zeke in even-numbered years (to preserve the alternating gender
scheme). During the Northeast Pacific's year of record activity in
1992, all 24 names were allotted to tropical cyclones forming east of
140W, ending with Tropical Storm Zeke in late October. Had more storms
developed, they would have been named with the letters of the Greek
alphabet (Alpha, Beta, etc), which is also the backup plan for the
Atlantic basin in case more than 21 tropical storms develop in a single
season.
The list for this year was last used in 1999 when only nine tropical
cyclones were named, the last one being Irwin. The most active season
to utilize this set of names was in 1987, when 18 cyclones were named,
down through Selma.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center, located in Honolulu, has
tropical cyclone warning responsibility for that portion of the North
Pacific Ocean lying between longitudes 140W and 180. The majority of
the tropical storms and hurricanes seen in that region are visitors
from east of 140W, but on the average about one tropical storm forms
in the Central Pacific each year, and when this happens, the storm is
given a Hawaiian name. The list consists of four sets of twelve
names each, using only the letters of the Hawaiian alphabet. All the
names are used--the first storm to form in a given year is assigned
the next available name on the list. No tropical cyclones were named
by CPHC in 2003 or in 2004. The last storm to form in Central Pacific
waters was Hurricane Huko in late October, 2002, so the next name to be
assigned will be Ioke.
Names for 2005 are (** indicates name has already been assigned):
ATLANTIC EASTERN PACIFIC CENTRAL PACIFIC
Arlene Lee Adrian Max Ioke
Bret Maria Beatriz Norma Kika
Cindy Nate Calvin Otis Lana
Dennis Ophelia Dora Pilar Maka
Emily Philippe Eugene Ramon Neki
Franklin Rita Fernanda Selma Oleka
Gert Stan Greg Todd Peni
Harvey Tammy Hilary Veronica Ulia
Irene Vince Irwin Wiley Wali
Jose Wilma Jova Xina Ana
Katrina Kenneth York Ela
Lidia Zelda Halola
2004 SEASONAL STATISTICS FOR THE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC BASINS
Following are monthly and seasonal tropical cyclone statistics for
the 2004 Atlantic and Northeast Pacific hurricane seasons. The
parameters are the ones used by Dr. Bill Gray and the Colorado State
University forecast team and should be familiar to everyone. But if
not, definitions for them may be found in the Monthly Feature section
in the June, 2003, summary, available at the several websites listed
near the end of this summary.
The statistics for the Atlantic basin are based on the period
1950-2004, and those for the Northeast Pacific are based on the
period 1971-2004. The NTC of 219 for the Atlantic is second only
to the NTC of 220 for the 1950 season. However, the NTC of only
63 for the Northeast Pacific basin is one of the lowest on record.
Only six seasons since 1971 have accumulated a lower NTC value. It
should be noted that the data for the Northeast Pacific covers the
entire basin from the Mexican coastline to longitude 180. Only one
cyclone of 2004, Tropical Storm Estelle, carried gale-force winds
west of 140W into the Central Pacific region.
Included in the numbers for the Atlantic is Subtropical Storm Nicole.
Operational naming of subtropical storms began in 2002, and Nicole is
the first system so named not to have evolved into a tropical cyclone.
Initially, the CSU forecast team included Nicole in their statistics
for the 2004 season, but have since reversed that decision. For the
time being I decided to leave Nicole in the mix since it adds only a
trivial amount to the NTC.
The Atlantic NTC of 85 for the month of August sets a new record
for that month. Also, the eight named storms forming during the month
is a new record for August dating back to 1851. Eight tropical cyclones
made landfall in the United States, including five of hurricane
intensity, and of these, three were of major hurricane intensity at
landfall (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir/Simpson scale). Both the
Leeward and Windward Islands, Puerto Rico, the island of Hispaniola,
the Bahamas, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba were also
significantly impacted by the 2004 tropical cyclones. However, no
tropical storms or hurricanes struck the Mexican West Coast during 2004.
ATLANTIC BASIN
Month NS H IH NSD HD IHD NTC
------------------------------------------------------------------
Aug 8 5 3 32.00 14.75 5.5 85.15
Sep 4 3 3 52.25 29.75 16.75 123.26
Oct 2 1 0 5.75 0.50 0.00 8.32
Nov 1 0 0 1.50 0.00 0.00 2.00
Dec 0 0 0 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.49
Total 15 9 6 93.00 45.00 22.25 219
NORTHEAST PACIFIC BASIN
Month NS H IH NSD HD IHD NTC
------------------------------------------------------------------
May 1 0 0 1.50 0.00 0.00 1.37
Jun 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jul 3 2 1 11.50 3.25 0.50 15.92
Aug 4 1 0 9.75 1.50 0.00 8.97
Sep 2 3 2 18.00 9.25 5.25 34.56
Oct 2 0 0 1.25 0.00 0.00 2.34
Total 12 6 3 42.00 14.00 5.75 63
*************************************************************************
ACTIVITY BY BASINS
ATLANTIC (ATL) - North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico
Activity for March: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEP) - North Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 180
Activity for March: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST PACIFIC (NWP) - North Pacific Ocean West of Longitude 180
Activity for March: 1 typhoon
Sources of Information
----------------------
Most of the information presented below is based upon tropical
cyclone warnings and significant tropical weather outlooks issued
by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U. S. Air Force and
Navy (JTWC), located at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. In the companion
tropical cyclone tracks file, I normally annotate track coordinates
from some of the various Asian warning centers when their center
positions differ from JTWC's by usually 40-50 nm or more. All
references to sustained winds imply a 1-minute averaging period
unless otherwise noted.
Michael V. Padua of Naga City in the Philippines, owner of the
Typhoon 2000 website, normally sends me cyclone tracks based upon
warnings issued by the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA). Also, Huang Chunliang of Fuzhou City, China,
sends data taken from synoptic observations around the Northwest
Pacific basin. A very special thanks to Michael and Chunliang for
the assistance they so reliably provide.
In the title line for each storm I have referenced all the cyclone
names/numbers I have available: JTWC's depression number, the
JMA-assigned name (if any), JMA's tropical storm numeric designator,
and PAGASA's name for systems forming in or passing through their
area of warning responsibility.
Northwest Pacific Tropical Activity for March
---------------------------------------------
A tropical storm or typhoon forms in the month of March on the
average about every 2 or 3 years in the Northwest Pacific basin. A
tropical storm (Butchoy--named by PAGASA) formed there in 2004, but
the last March typhoon was Super Typhoon Mitag in 2002. The second
tropical cyclone and first typhoon of 2005, Typhoon Roke, formed around
mid-month and made landfall in the central Philippines (where it was
known by the name Auring). A report on Typhoon Roke/Auring, authored by
Kevin Boyle, follows.
TYPHOON ROKE
(TC-02W / STS 0502 / AURING)
13 - 19 March
------------------------------------------------
Roke: contributed by the United States, is a Chamorran male name
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The first typhoon of the year, Roke, formed from a surface trough
after only a month's hiatus in tropical cyclone activity in the Western
North Pacific. It was also the first straight-runner of the year, moving
quite briskly towards the west and across the Philippines before falling
to pieces and dissipating in the South China Sea.
The origins of Typhoon Roke can be traced from an area of deep
convection that persisted for six hours near 4.5N/152.0E, and this was
first mentioned in JTWC's STWO at 2300 UTC 11 March. Animated multi-
spectral satellite imagery depicted a weak circulation associated with
the thunderstorm activity and QuikScat data identified a weak circulation
within a broad surface trough. Upper-level conditions were favourable
for further development and a TCFA was issued for the organizing system
at 12/2200 UTC, followed by the first warning at 13/0600 UTC which
centred Tropical Depression 02W approximately 345 nm south-southeast of
Andersen AB, Guam.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
After a quiet 24 hours, Tropical Depression 02W was upgraded to
tropical storm status at 0600 UTC 14 March and passed a little under
100 nm north of Yap between 14/1800 UTC and 15/0000 UTC. The system was
named Roke by JMA at 15/0000 UTC after that agency upped their MSW to
35 kts. The storm had been only slowly intensifying up to this point,
but more significant strengthening ensued during the 15th. Roke became
a 65-kt typhoon at 15/1800 UTC, its developing eye centred approximately
700 nm east of Manila, Philippines. (PAGASA named the typhoon Auring at
15/1200 UTC after the tropical cyclone had entered their AOR.)
Continuing westwards under the influence of the mid-level steering
ridge, Roke maintained a MSW of 65 kts (its peak intensity) until it made
landfall near Tacloban, Philippines, at 16/1800 UTC. Roke crossed the
Philippine Archipelago as a strong 55-kt tropical storm and emerged back
over water, passing just north of Palawan shortly after 17/1200 UTC. The
tropical cyclone continued to weaken as it tracked westward into a pool
of cold, dry air located in its path and was downgraded to a tropical
depression at 17/1800 UTC, the time of the final warning issued by JTWC.
JMA continued to monitor the dying system's progress as a 25-kt tropical
depression across the South China Sea almost to the Vietnam coast, ending
bulletin transmissions at 19/0600 UTC.
NMCC estimated a peak intensity of 60 kts while the highest MSW
estimated by the other Asian warning agencies bar HKO was 55 kts. HKO
classified Roke as a 50-kt severe tropical storm. The lowest CP
estimated by JMA was 980 mb.
A graphic displaying the track of Typhoon Roke/Auring may be found
at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/PACIFIC_WEST/2005_02W_BT.gif>
C. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
Huang Chunliang sent in one observation from the Philippines. Guiuan,
Samar Island (WMO 98558, 11.0N/125.7E) recorded 139.8 mm of rainfall
during the 24 hours ending at 17/0000 UTC.
The center of Auring passed about 85 nm south of Naga City on Luzon
on the 16th. Michael Padua reported that his weather station recorded
a peak wind of 24.5 kts at 16/0650 UTC but with a minimum SLP of
1007.7 mb at 0645 UTC on the 17th. The maximum rainfall rate of
87.1 mm/hr occurred at 16/2327 UTC and the total measured rainfall for
the 2-day period was 24 mm.
Michael sent the following links whereby more observations can be
accessed:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/data/downld02.txt>
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ICAMARIN2>
http://members2.boardhost.com/typhoon2000/msg/1436.html>
D. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
According to press reports, eight persons were confirmed dead and
11 reported missing after Typhoon Roke scythed its way across the
Philippines. Six of the casualties occurred when the commercial vessel
MV Esperanza capsized in high winds near Ormoc City Pier. The NDCC
indicated that 939 families or 4793 persons were displaced by
Roke/Auring, and 1181 houses in Leyte and Eastern Samar were destroyed.
E. How Strong Was Typhoon Roke?
-------------------------------
There were some indications that the midget Typhoon Roke was
substantially stronger than 65 kts. Following is an excerpt from an
e-mail sent by Mark Lander:
"I contend that Roke made it to 100 kts at about 0500 UTC March 16. I
have appended the Aqua images and the corresponding VIS at that time.
The eye was very well-defined, but very small. It only showed up in the
89 (GHz) channel and not the 36 (GHz)--I think because at the lower
levels where the 36 (GHz) "sees", the eye diameter was too small--maybe
10 miles or less--then expanding outward to perhaps 15 miles or so at the
top where the higher frequency channels could see it. Although in some
of the before and after SSMI shots, it was apparent in both the 85 and 37
GHz channels.
"As a midget tropical cyclone, changes in intensity can be very rapid
(both ways). By the way, there is a later TRMM pass (16 MAR 1618 UTC)
that shows that it still had a nice eye as it made landfall in the
central Philippines.
"I'm certain that the peak intensity was substantially higher than
65 kts!"
(Report written by Kevin Boyle)
*************************************************************************
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) - Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
Activity for March: No tropical cyclones
*************************************************************************
SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN (SWI) - South Indian Ocean West of Longitude 90E
Activity for March: 1 severe tropical storm
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are the warnings issued by
the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre on La Reunion Island, part of
Meteo France (MFR), and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
for the basin. However, tropical cyclones in this region are named
by the Sub-regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres in Mauritius and
Madagascar with longitude 55E being the demarcation line between their
respective areas of naming responsibility. The La Reunion centre only
advises these agencies regarding the intensity of tropical systems.
References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period unless
otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from MFR's coordinates by usually
40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the source of the
1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included in the
tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.
Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Activity for March
--------------------------------------------------
Two numbered tropical disturbances formed in the South Indian Ocean
west of 90E during the latter part of March. The first, Tropical
Disturbance 16, strengthened into a severe tropical storm and was named
Hennie. Hennie passed southward a short distance east of Mauritius and
Reunion Island where heavy rainfall occurred. Tropical Disturbance 17
formed at the end of the month and in early April became Tropical Storm
Isang. Isang will be covered in the April summary. A report on Severe
Tropical Storm Hennie follows.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HENNIE
(MFR-16 / TC-24S)
21 - 29 March
------------------------------------------------
Hennie: contributed by Namibia
A. Storm Origins
----------------
Following the flurry of weak tropical systems during February, the
tropical Southwest Indian Ocean lay quiet until after the middle of
March. On the 19th an area of convection formed approximately 465 nm
west of Diego Garcia with deep convection beginning to consolidate around
a possible developing LLCC. Outflow was increasing in all quadrants and
the system lay within an environment of very favorable divergence aloft
and increasing 850-mb vorticity. On 20 March animated infrared imagery
revealed a broad area of convection around a possible LLCC with good
poleward outflow. In addition, vertical shear was low. JTWC upgraded
the development potential to 'fair' at 0200 UTC on 21 March as deep
convection continued to increase in organization. MFR issued the first
bulletin on Tropical Disturbance 16 at 21/0600, placing a weak 20-kt
center approximately 600 nm west-southwest of Diego Garcia. JTWC issued
a TCFA at 21/0900 UTC. Deep convection and surface cloud lines were
beginning to rotate around the LLCC, which was located underneath the
near-equatorial ridge axis in an environment of low shear and favorable
divergence.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
JTWC's first warning on TC-24S came at 21/1800 UTC with the MSW
estimated at 30 kts (1-min avg). The system was tracking southwestward
at 10 kts and possessed strong dual outflow channels, indicating that
rapid intensification was a possibility. MFR upped the winds to 30 kts
at 22/0000 UTC, resulting in classification as a tropical depression.
Six hours later Mauritius named the depression Hennie while it was
located roughly 350 nm north-northeast of Mauritius, and at 1200 UTC MFR
upgraded Hennie to tropical storm status with 35-kt winds. Hennie's
motion, which had been steadily southwestward on the 22nd, began to slow
and become south-southwesterly around 23/0000 UTC. By 1200 UTC the storm
was moving due southward at 8 kts. Intensification was slow at first,
but the storm strengthened some on the 23rd and reached its peak
intensity of 55 kts at 0000 UTC on 24 March when it was centered only
about 75 nm east-northeast of Mauritius. The minimum estimated CP was
980 hPa. Outflow was still good and vertical wind shear was low. Hennie
maintained its peak MSW of 55 kts (per MFR) for 24 hours. (JTWC's peak
1-min avg MSW was 65 kts at 24/0600 UTC--in good agreement with MFR's
assessment.) However, animated EIR water vapor imagery at this time
revealed a decrease in poleward outflow and a weakening of the deep
convection.
Severe Tropical Storm Hennie's southward motion continued through
0600 UTC on 25 March, after which time the storm took a jog to the east-
southeast. Beginning at 26/0000 UTC the system's track was generally
southeastward with a few wiggles and wobbles. By late on the 25th
Hennie had begun to enter an area of cold, dry air and increased vertical
wind shear. The cloud pattern and LLCC were becoming elongated,
indicating that the system was beginning the initial stages of extra-
tropical transition. The LLCC had become fully-exposed to the northwest
of the remaining deep convection by 26/1800 UTC, and by 27/0600 UTC the
former tropical storm had completed its transformation into an extra-
tropical cyclone about 425 nm southeast of Mauritius. The remnants of
Hennie continued southeastward as a 45-kt gale center, being last
reported about 775 nm southeast of Mauritius at 1200 UTC on 29 March.
A graphic displaying the track of Severe Tropical Storm Hennie may be
found at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/INDIAN_SOUTHWEST/2005_16M_HENNIE_BT.gif>
C. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
On Reunion Island, a couple of locations had 24-hour rainfall amounts
exceeding 150 mm in the 24 hours ending at 22/0500 UTC. One station near
the volcano (altitude > 2000 m) recorded 397 mm during this period.
Mauritius experienced heavy rainfalls from Tropical Storm Hennie.
Following are some of the more significant 24-hour totals:
Station Rainfall (mm) Date/Time (UTC)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Sans-Souci 202.8 18/0000 - 19/0000
Grand-Bassin 126.0 18/0000 - 19/0000
Providence 91.6 18/0000 - 19/0000
Souillac 96.0 19/1200 - 20/1200
Fuel 101.0 20/0000 - 21/0000
The table below lists some 3-hour totals recorded between 0000 and
0300 UTC on 21 March:
Station Rainfall (mm)
-------------------------------------
Souillac 87.6
Bain Boeuf 50.8
Mon-Loisir Rouillard 45.6
Queen-Victoria 42.4
Plaisance 39.3
Palmar 37.0
Bain Boeuf recorded 110.8 mm of rain on 21 March, but the exact period
during which this amount was recorded was not specified.
(All the above rainfall data was sent by Patrick Hoareau--a special
thanks to Patrick for forwarding the information to me.)
D. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
No reports of casualties or significant damage resulting from Severe
Tropical Storm Hennie have been received.
(Report written by Gary Padgett with contributions by Patrick Hoareau)
*************************************************************************
NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA/SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN (AUW) - From 90E to 135E
Activity for March: 2 severe tropical cyclones **
** - one of these originated in the Coral Sea, east of 135E
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are
the warnings and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning
Centres at Perth, Western Australia, and Darwin, Northern Territory.
References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging period
unless otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor-
dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the
source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included
in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.
Northwest Australia/Southeast Indian Ocean
Tropical Activity for March
------------------------------------------
In contrast to March of 2004 when several tropical cyclones (Monty,
Nicky, Fay and Oscar) stirred waters of the Southeast Indian Ocean, only
one named cyclone formed there during March of 2005. Severe Tropical
Cyclone Willy formed south of the Indonesian islands and moved slowly
southwestward for several days, roughly paralleling the coastline of
Western Australia. Willy became an impressive cyclone but its effects
on Australia were minimal. A report on Tropical Cyclone Willy follows.
However, there was a very significant visitor to the region. Severe
Tropical Cyclone Ingrid orginated in the Coral Sea on the 5th and pursued
a storied career as it traveled from its region of birth across the Cape
York Peninsula of Queensland into the Gulf of Carpentaria, thence
continuing west-northwestward and skimming the Top End coastline, causing
great destruction to many towns and resorts on various islands off the
Northern Territory coast. Finally, the small but intense cyclone turned
southwestward, making landfall in the Kimberley region of Western
Australia and wrecking the Faraway Bay resort. The report on Severe
Tropical Cyclone Ingrid can be found in the next section of this summary
covering Northeast Australia and the Coral Sea.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILLY
(TC-23S)
9 - 17 March
-----------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
The first tropical cyclone in the Southeast Indian Ocean in over a
month began to take shape late in the first week of March. The daily
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by BoM Perth on the 7th indicated that
while there were no significant tropical LOWs, models were indicating
that one might form in a day or so near 13S/115E and move southwest-
ward, possibly developing. The Outlook on the 8th basically re-iterated
this information. At 1800 UTC on 8 March JTWC issued a STWO which
described an area of convection which had formed and persisted roughly
400 nm north of Port Hedland, Western Australia. Recent animated
infrared imagery indicated an increase in deep convection, and a
08/1013 UTC QuikScat pass depicted a well-organized LLCC located in an
environment of moderate vertical shear and moderate upper-level
divergence.
Perth initiated gale warnings on the LOW at 0100 UTC on the 9th in
anticipation that the system would likely intensify into a tropical
cyclone. The LOW was then centered approximately 450 nm north of Port
Hedland and deep convection was increasing around the LLCC. JTWC
upped the development potential to 'fair' at 09/0500 UTC and issued a
TCFA at 1230 UTC. At this time animated multi-spectral satellite imagery
revealed a rapidly developing system with a well-defined LLCC. Shortly
thereafter, at 09/1600 UTC, Perth named the system Tropical Cyclone
Willy with 35-kt winds, still located roughly 450 nm north of Port
Hedland, although a little west of the 09/0100 UTC position. (At 1800
UTC JTWC issued their first warning on TC-23S, also with an intensity
of 35 kts.)
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
For several days Tropical Cyclone Willy moved rather slowly along a
west-southwesterly to southwesterly track off the coast of Western
Australia as it was guided by a ridge lying to the southeast. The
cyclone was located in a favorable environment with dual outflow channels
and strengthened steadily, reaching severe tropical cyclone (i.e.,
hurricane) status with 65-kt winds by 2200 UTC on 10 March while located
approximately 350 nm north-northwest of Onslow. Willy continued to
intensify, reaching its peak intensity of 80 kts with an estimated
minimum CP of 960 hPa around 2200 UTC on the 11th. The cyclone was then
centered roughly 300 nm northwest of Onslow. The forward motion had
slowed some by then as Willy had gotten caught in a weak steering
environment between two upper-level ridges. However, by early on the
12th the storm was moving southwestward again at a faster pace. (JTWC's
estimated peak 1-min avg MSW of 90 kts was in very good agreement with
Perth's peak assessment, although JTWC had upped Willy's intensity to
90 kts at 11/0600 UTC, during which time Perth was reporting the 10-min
avg MSW at around 70 to 75 kts.)
Following its peak in intensity, Cyclone Willy's MSW levelled off
and remained pegged at 75 kts for 24 hours. A fairly rapid decline in
intensity ensued thereafter. Perth downgraded the system to below
hurricane strength at 13/1000 UTC, and Willy was reduced to a tropical
LOW with 30-kt winds at 1000 UTC on the 14th while located approximately
475 nm west-northwest of Carnarvon, Western Australia. During its
weakening phase Willy turned to a westerly track in response to a low to
mid-level ridge building equatorward of the system. The ex-Willy LOW
continued to drift westward for two to three days well west of the
Australian coastline, being mentioned for the last time on the 17th
near 21S/102E.
A graphic displaying the track of Severe Tropical Cyclone Willy may be
found at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/AUSTRALIA/2005_09U_23S_WILLY_BT.gif>
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
No damage or casualties are known to have resulted from Severe
Tropical Cyclone Willy.
(Report written by Gary Padgett)
*************************************************************************
NORTHEAST AUSTRALIA/CORAL SEA (AUE) - From 135E to 160E
Activity for March: 1 severe tropical cyclone
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
Northeast Australia/Coral Sea tropical cyclones are the warnings
and advices issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at
Brisbane, Queensland, and Darwin, Northern Territory, and on very
infrequent occasions, by the centre at Port Moresby, Papua New
Guinea. References to sustained winds imply a 10-minute averaging
period unless otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Australian centres' coor-
dinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings are also the
source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind values included
in the tracks file. Additionally, information describing details of
satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation features included in
the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC warnings.
Northeast Australia/Coral Sea
Tropical Activity for March
-----------------------------
One of the most remarkable tropical cyclones of recent years menaced
northern Australia from the Cape York Peninsula all the way to the
Kimberley region of Western Australia. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid
reached Category 5 status (Australian scale) three times and brought a
Category 4/5 impact to Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western
Australia--the only known cyclone to strike all three areas at such an
intensity. In regard to its long trajectory, Ingrid was reminiscent of
Tropical Cyclone Steve of February and March, 2000, which struck all
three of the tropical areas and brought gales to South Australia and
possibly even Victoria and Tasmania in its extratropical stages. A
report on Tropical Cyclone Ingrid written by Simon Clarke follows.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE INGRID
(TC-22P)
5 - 19 March
--------------------------------------------------
A. Introduction
---------------
Tropical Cyclone Ingrid was certainly a cyclone for the record
books: the only cyclone known to have delivered a Category 4 or 5
(Australian scale) impact in all three tropical regions of Australia
(Queensland, Northern Territory and Western Australia). In doing so,
the cyclone travelled in excess of 2500 km (1360 nm), reminiscent of
fellow "long traveller" Tropical Cyclone Steve in February/March,
2000.
A preliminary report on Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid, authored
by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is also available on-line at
the following URL:
http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/services_policy/tc_ingrid/index.shtml>
B. Storm Origins
----------------
A mildly active monsoon trough became re-established to the north
of the Australian continent in early March, and by 3 March an area of
low pressure gradually consolidated to the northeast of Cape Wessel,
Northern Territory, and commenced movement toward the east-southeast.
The developing tropical LOW crossed the northern tip of Cape York
Peninsula, moving into the far northwestern Coral Sea. By 05/0500
UTC it was near 11.9S/145.0E (approximately 100 nm east of Cape
Greenville, Queensland) and moving eastward at 10 kts.
The LOW was located in a favorable environment for further
development consisting of low vertical wind shear and favorable
diffluence aloft. The LOW was sustained by such conditions for much
of its life as a cyclone and in addition, when it was over water, the
SSTs were generally about 30 C.
C. Synoptic History
-------------------
The LOW was upgraded to cyclone status and named Ingrid at 06/0200
UTC near 12.7S/148.0E, or approximately 250 nm east of Lockhart
River, Queensland, as gales wrapped around the LLCC. The cyclone
intensified at a rapid rate and slowed its forward momentum as a high
pressure ridge built to the south across the Coral Sea. In a little
over 24 hours, Ingrid was a severe 'midget' tropical cyclone located
220 nm east-northeast of Cooktown with gales extending little more
than 30 nm from the centre and hurricane force winds of up to 75 kts
confined to near its centre. Soon afterward Ingrid recurved to the
southwest and commenced movement toward the far northern Queensland
tropical coast in response to the strengthening of a mid-level ridge
located to the south of the system. The first Tropical Cyclone
Advice was issued at 07/0600 UTC for the far northern tropical coast
of Queensland. However, Ingrid continued to recurve and was directed
on a general west-northwesterly path at 4 kts towards the Northern
Cape York Peninsula, a direction that the cyclone would follow for
the following six days. The first of Ingrid's three periods of
Category 5 intensity was achieved in the northwestern Coral Sea. At
14.0S/147.9E, or approximately 180 nm east-northeast of Cooktown,
Ingrid reached an estimated CP of 930 hPa and possessed maximum
10-min avg winds of 115 kts near the centre.
(Note: Despite some estimations at the time of a CP as low at 908 hPa,
it should be noted that BoM Brisbane varies their assessments based on
the size of the system. For midget cyclones [or near midget cyclones
like Ingrid], they use a higher CP for a given intensity. Jeff Callaghan
from Brisbane BoM notes that Cyclone Ada [Whitsunday Islands, 1970] had
a measured CP of 960 hPa, but caused Category 4 damage, and Cyclone Tracy
[Darwin, 1974] had a high CP of 952 hPa, also causing Category 4/5 level
damage.)
In satellite imagery, Ingrid developed a very symmetrical eye with
an impressive but tight outflow pattern (see Link 1 in Section F of
this report). However, the cyclone weakened on its approach to
northern Cape York (to 970 hPa with maximum gusts of 103 kts) due to
unfavourable wind shear and a weakening in poleward outflow due to
the passing of a mid-latitude trough, but re-strengthened slightly
just prior to landfall at 13.2S/143.5E, or 15 nm south of Old
Lockhart River Mission and 30 nm south-southeast of New Lockhart
River. At this time, Ingrid was a compact 955 hPa cyclone with
destructive winds extending out 30 nm from the centre and very
destructive gusts of up to 130 kts extending out only 10 nm from the
centre.
The cyclone continued to track across Cape York Peninsula on a
westerly track at 8-12 kts, gradually weakening, but maintaining
cyclone status prior to crossing back to sea in the Gulf of
Carpentaria near Aurukun (13.3S/141.8E) at 10/0900 UTC. Ingrid had
maintained a fairly well-intact structure while crossing land and
quickly re-intensified as it moved west-northwestward over the very
warm waters of the Gulf.
By 11/0600 UTC, Ingrid had crossed into the Northern Territory's
AOR and had regained hurricane intensity (see Link 2). The cyclone
maintained a path to the west-northwest at 10 kts, passing
approximately 15 nm north of Nhulunbuy (Gove) at 11/1800 UTC where
wind gusts reached 60 kts. The cyclone was tracked by the Nhulunbuy
(Gove) radar which depicted a compact cyclone with a tightening wind
core, signifying intensification. The cyclone brushed the
northeastern tip of the Northern Territory at Cape Wilberforce and
continued on a general west-northwesterly path, crossing through the
southern part of the Wessel Island chain and approximately 25 nm north
of Elcho Island at 12/0000 UTC. Ingrid regained Category 5 status at
about this time (CP of 938 hPa and peak 10-min avg winds of 110 kts)
and maintained an oscillating west-northwestward path at 10 kts
parallel to and approximately 30-40 nm off the Arnhem coastline.
Ingrid maintained a very compact destructive core with hurricane
force winds extending out little more than 10 nm from the centre and
gales out to 60 nm. As such, the very destructive core was for the
most part maintained offshore. Radar imagery indicated a very small
and intense system with an eye diameter near 5 nm: cloud tops
surrounding the eye were estimated at -76 C to -80 C.
The cyclone turned to the west as it approached Coburg Peninsula
and reached its second major peak in intensity of 925 hPa and 10-min
avg winds of 120 kts. Ingrid passed to the south of the southern tip
of Croker Island at 12/1800 UTC before moving over Coburg Peninsula
at 13/0000 UTC. The cyclone weakened due to interaction with land
and unfavorable shear with the eye disappearing momentarily from
satellite and radar imagery.
The cyclone maintained a 5-kt westward path over the northern part
of the Tiwi Islands, passing firstly over Melville Island as a
Category 3 (950 hPa, maximum 10-min avg winds 90 kts) cyclone. The
cyclone eventually moved out into the Timor Sea at 13/1800 UTC from
Bathurst Island as an 80-kt cyclone. Once again the cyclone
commenced the process of re-strengthening as it moved clear of the
Tiwi Islands and in response to favourable upper-level outflow
conditions in all directions and high SSTs. Satellite imagery and
the Darwin radar depicted an intensifying cyclone with deep
convection increasing around the eyewall. Ingrid continued to be a
very compact cyclone as it moved initially to the west-southwest and
then on a southwesterly path at 7 kts in response to a weakening in
the middle-level ridge to the south. The main jet stream moving to
the southeast of the system across into Queensland further enhanced
the intensification process as Ingrid regained Category 5 status at
15/0000 UTC (CP of 935 hPa, maximum 10-min avg winds of 110 kts): an
intensity that was maintained until landfall.
At 15/1200 UTC, Ingrid made its final landfall, crossing the north
Kimberley coast about 30 nm northeast of Kalumburu and 115 nm northwest
of Wyndham. The Wyndham radar depicted the compact core of Ingrid making
landfall at Faraway Bay.
The cyclone maintained a southwesterly course overland, slowing to
3 kts before recurving to the east-southeast around the upper-level
ridge to the south. As expected for a small system, the cyclone
weakened fairly rapidly over the rugged terrain of the north Kimberley
region and was finally downgraded at 16/2100 UTC (near Kununurra, Western
Australia) as it moved at 6 kts back into the Northern Territory as a
rain depression.
(Note: JTWC's estimated 1-min avg MSW values for Ingrid's three "peaks"
in intensity agreed very well with the 10-min avg MSW estimates from
the Australian TCWCs. At the first "peak" on 7-8 March, Brisbane
estimated 115 kts while JTWC's 1-min avg MSW was 130 kts. At the second
and maximum "peak" on 12 March, Darwin estimated 120 kts while JTWC's
1-min avg MSW was 135 kts. At the third and final "peak" on 15 March,
Darwin's MSW was 110 kts while JTWC's 1-min avg MSW was 130 kts.)
A graphic displaying the track of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid may
be found at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/AUSTRALIA/2005_08U_22P_INGRID_BT.gif>
D. Meteorological Observations
------------------------------
Ingrid was a compact but intense cyclone. It should be noted that
observations are hardly ever taken in the strongest part of any
cyclone. However, the preliminary BoM Report at the following URL
provides the most salient observations recorded with the cyclone and
also provides further links to wind and pressure charts:
http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/services_policy/tc_ingrid/index.shtml>
Another interim report is also available from the Queensland
Environmental Protection Agency providing useful material on Ingrid's
storm tide at the following link:
http://www.epa.qld.gov.au/publications?id=1584>
For the purposes of this report, it is not intended to reproduce any
further data here.
However of interest, BoM reported that anemometer cups became bent at
McCluer Island, and at Cape Don anemometer cups blew off in the middle of
the event (and apparently they still have not been found).
Huang Chunliang sent the following 24-hourly rainfall observations
taken in association with Ingrid:
Only daily amounts >= 100 mm listed:
GOVE AIRPORT (WMO94150 12.28S 136.82E) 198.4 mm [11/00-12/00Z]
NARAWILLI (-------- 12.00S 135.57E) 123.6 mm [12/00-13/00Z]
MILINGIMBI (WMO94140 12.12S 134.90E) 120.0 mm [12/00-13/00Z]
MANINGRIDA (WMO94142 12.05S 134.22E) 154.8 mm [12/00-13/00Z]
WARMUN (WMO94213 17.02S 128.22E) 135.8 mm [16/00-17/00Z]
E. Preliminary Damage Reports
-----------------------------
Cyclone Ingrid was not only a significant weather event, but also
a major media event, particularly in areas along its path. The
significant attention paid to the cyclone by the communities
contributed to the fact that no significant injuries were reported in
Australia and is a testament to the warning system in place to deal
with the cyclone.
Ingrid was a small but very intense cyclone. Communities beyond
a 50 nm radius of the track were hardly affected. Furthermore,
whereas some significant rainfall totals were recorded, total amounts
were generally not as remarkable as those reported after some other
larger but less intense cyclones in the past (particularly over Cape
York Peninsula).
However, five lives were lost in the Coral Sea near Kerema in
Papua New Guinea as a boat capsized in the large swells generated by
Ingrid.
The following is a preliminary snapshot of the effects of Ingrid
on communities in the cyclone's path, collated from various sources:
(1) Cape York Peninsula, Queensland
-----------------------------------
Ingrid was not a great rain producer over the Cape and damage was
confined to a relatively narrow swathe close to the coastal crossing
near Bombart Point. The police officer at Lockhart River (very close
to the QLD coastal crossing) reported from an aerial surveillance
that the area affected by the cyclone core had been "totally and
utterly cleared" of trees. The leaves had been stripped and the
dismembered trunks had been pushed over near the base. Channel 7
showed footage of a 30-nm wide swathe of tree damage and a house
demolished near the beach.
The police officer also reported that there was evidence of water
inundation 10-15 km inland, and that he thought it was salt water
inundation (noting that there wasn't a lot of rain with Ingrid). The
EPA report (see Link 3) reported an estimated peak water level of 4.0
metres above Australian Height Datum (AHD) near Voaden Point (at the
southern end of the Lockhart River Aboriginal Reserve). Furthermore
in the officer's opinion, had Ingrid gone over the town, it would
have destroyed everything.
The police officer at Iron Range recorded a storm surge of 1 metre
at the time of landfall. This location is 30 km north-northwest of
the point where the centre crossed the coast.
The people of Lockhart River (population approximately 400) were
placed in the town's stronger buildings shortly prior to landfall.
There were no reports of injury as a result of the Cape York crossing.
The cyclone forced Qantas to cancel two flights from Cairns to far
northern destinations: a midday service to Horn Island in Torres
Strait was cancelled at midday and a separate flight to Weipa was
also cancelled during the afternoon.
It was estimated that (AUS) $2 million worth of damage was caused
in Queensland from Ingrid, with the Cook Shire Council estimating
that damage of up to $1 million had occurred to shire roads and the
Douglas Shire reporting up to $300,000 of road damage.
(2) Top End, Northern Territory
-------------------------------
Nhulunbuy - In the town of approximately 4000 people, about 250 people
sheltered in the town's main cyclone shelter near the hospital as the
main destructive core passed just to the north of the township.
Arafura Pearls reported suffering more than $1 million damage to its
pearling fleet, with seven vessels lost or missing and a 27-metre
vessel that had run aground in Nhulunbuy harbour was damaged. The
company reported that none of the crew or staff was injured in the
cyclone.
Oenpelli - The Acting Police Sergeant reported that power was out at
Goulburn Island, but no major damage had been reported from the
cyclone. "A lot of trees down around the town and a fair bit of
rubbish blown about," he said. "Some minor damage to signs and so
forth but it doesn't appear that the roofs have been taken off houses
and so forth."
Croker Island - The Minjilang Community Council on Croker Island said
it could take years to recover from the devastation of Ingrid.
Extensive damage was reported to the town of 200 people, including
the school being unroofed, damage to half the community's 60 houses
and many steel power poles felled or bent out of shape. The town was
left with no running water and only enough food for two days. Jarbu
fishing lodge was reported as being obliterated and most buildings
were extensively damaged, including the teachers' accommodation. A
local said "I would doubt if there's a single tree left in town
that's standing."
Survivors reported that they could not believe that no one was
killed or injured and this was attributed to the community heeding
the warnings and acting responsibly.
Cobourg Peninsula - A number of the buildings at Cape Don lost roofs.
Tree damage on the Cobourg Peninsula included extensive defoliation
of the forest (see video footage at the end of Link 4).
Tiwi Islands - The picturesque Tiwi Islands were described as
resembling a war zone after Cyclone Ingrid unfurled her full wrath on
the island's tiny communities. Tiwi islanders began to emerge from
emergency shelters on Monday afternoon, after enduring a terrifying
24 hours as the eye of the destructive cyclone passed directly
overhead. At least two houses were ripped apart, and 'flying' trees
damaged several other homes as gales pummeled the two Tiwi islands on
Sunday night.
Cyclone Ingrid was reported as causing serious damage to the Tiwi
Island community of Nguiu, knocking over trees and cutting
communications to the community. Nguiu essential services
coordinator reported that there were "quite a large number of big
mahogany trees over--one onto a house, one has fallen into the store
here and also lifted up the telecommunications cables out of the
ground which ran nearby." The power had been turned off because the
high voltage cables were clashing together. "Down along the beach
there's been a number of trees uprooted and the water is up to the
road at the beach."
Residents of Milikapiti, the northern-most community on Melville
Island, spent the night in the Milikapiti Recreation Centre and told
of hearing clattering objects and wind howling in all directions as
they took shelter from the cyclone. It was reported that "there were
sounds of logs and metal hitting the side of the hall and it was a
terrifying ordeal. Plus the rain came in and it was very scary for
the old people."
While almost none of the trees in town survived, there was little
damage to buildings. Milikapiti's housing manager said that he could
not understand how this could be: given the size of the objects he
saw flying through the air. "A lot of big sections of trees went past
us. It (the wind) had no trouble in picking them up," he said.
Roofing was blown from Milikapiti's school.
Along with Milikapiti, the small communities of Ranku and
Pirlangimpi were without functioning sewerage services, according to
police reports.
Communities at Snake Bay and Garden Point on Melville Island were
also affected by widespread tree damage.
The Northern Territory Government estimated that Ingrid may have
caused about (AUS) $5 million damage to Croker and the Tiwi Islands.
Darwin - The city was advised to prepare for the cyclone and warned
of $5000 fines for people failing to act. Schools were also closed
in preparation and some flights were cancelled, including an Air
Garuda flight from Denpasar, leaving tourists stranded. Heavy rain
squalls with winds gusts up to 41 kts were recorded at Lee Point on
the outskirts of Darwin. Despite this and all the preparations,
Ingrid left Darwin unscathed.
(3) Kimberley Coast, Western Australia
--------------------------------------
Faraway Bay - The remote resort of Faraway Bay, which had previously
withstood Category 3 cyclones with no damage, was reported as being
wrecked by Ingrid. Two staff members sheltered in a sea container
while Ingrid passed directly overhead and escaped unharmed. At the
time of report writing the future of Faraway Bay resort remains
uncertain.
The storm tide accompanying the cyclone was reported as depositing
boats about 100 metres inland and several metres above the usual high
tide mark.
Kalumbaru - Ingrid had weakened a little by the time it reached
Kalumburu (population approximately 400) which was spared the worst.
While the cyclone brought down trees and power lines, and disrupted
essential services like water, there was no severe damage.
However flooding was extensive in the Kimberley region as the
adjacent King Edward River became a massive swollen torrent.
Floodwaters cut the Great Northern Highway near Kununurra and
isolated some properties.
At one point, the State Emergency Service had concerns for two
tourists and a local man believed to be at an eco-tourism retreat
called Alligator Camp at the mouth of the Drysdale River. However,
all three missing people were found safe and well.
At the time of writing an estimate of damage from the Western
Australian Government was not available.
F. Links
--------
Link 1:
=======
Satellite Imagery of Ingrid in the Northern Coral Sea
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/shownh.php3?img_id=12751>
Link 2:
=======
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcimages/shem04_5/willy_ingrid1103.gif>
Link 3:
=======
Queensland Environmental Protection Agency Interim Report on Ingrid:
http://www.epa.qld.gov.au/publications?id=1584>
Link 4:
=======
Video footage (large in size) of the cyclone passing by Cape Don,
Northern Territory is available at:
http://met.psu.edu/~evans/2005-TC-Ingrid/>
Additional Links:
=================
Further photographs, reports and a basic plot of Ingrid's track can
be found at the following sites:
http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/services_policy/tc_ingrid/index.shtml>
http://www.drdisk.com.hk/ingrid.htm>
http://www.australianweathernews.com/>
TRMM Imagery is available at:
http://www.drdisk.com.hk/images/Cat_5_MI_Sig_Ingrid_Mar_2005.jpg>
Further satellite pictures can be found at:
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/S_Pacific/>
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/IndOcean/>
ABC News report as Ingrid passes to the north of Darwin:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/items/200503/1322440.htm?nt>
Cyclone chaser report from Geoff Mackley at:
http://www.rambocam.com/archive/ingrid.html>
Damage photographs, near the Argyle Diamond Village:
http://www.pbase.com/simonb/tc_ingrid>
(Report written by Simon Clarke)
*************************************************************************
SOUTH PACIFIC (SPA) - South Pacific Ocean East of Longitude 160E
Activity for March: 1 tropical depression
1 tropical cyclone of gale intensity
Sources of Information
----------------------
The primary sources of tracking and intensity information for
South Pacific tropical cyclones are the warnings and advisories
issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres at Nadi, Fiji (for
waters north of latitude 25S), and Wellington, New Zealand (for
waters south of latitude 25S). References to sustained winds imply
a 10-minute averaging period unless otherwise stated.
In the companion tropical cyclone tracks file, I occasionally
annotate positions from warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center (JTWC) of the U. S. Air Force and Navy, located at Pearl
Harbor, Hawaii, when they differ from the Southern Hemisphere
centres' coordinates by usually 40-50 nm or more. The JTWC warnings
are also the source of the 1-minute average maximum sustained wind
values included in the tracks file. Additionally, information
describing details of satellite imagery and atmospheric circulation
features included in the narratives is often gleaned from the JTWC
warnings.
South Pacific Tropical Activity for March
-----------------------------------------
As the month of March opened, intense Tropical Cyclone Percy was
moving southward well east of Samoa. Percy reached its peak intensity
of 125 kts early on the 2nd about 200 nm northwest of Palmerston Island
and thereafter began to steadily weaken as it moved into higher
latitudes. The complete report on Cyclone Percy can be found in the
February summary. Except for two weak systems which formed in the wake
of Percy, the month of March was quiet throughout the South Pacific--in
stark contrast to the month of February when four very intense tropical
cyclones traversed South Pacific waters east of the International Date-
line. A tropical disturbance which formed in late February was numbered
as Tropical Depression 12F on 1 March northeast of Fiji. This system
spent the next few days drifting generally southeastward, becoming
Tropical Cyclone Rae on the 5th while located west of Rarotonga. A
report on Rae written by Simon Clarke follows.
Another LOW which formed in late February south of Guadalcanal was
classified as Tropical Depression 13F on 2 March just northwest of Fiji.
TD-13F remained weak as it drifted near Fiji, dissipating near the
Dateline on the 4th. A track was included for TD-13F in the companion
cyclone tracks file. A graphic displaying the track of short-lived
Tropical Depression 13F may be found at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/PACIFIC_FIJI/2005_13F_TD_BT.gif>
TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE
(TD-12F / TC-21P)
27 February - 8 March
-----------------------------------------
A. Storm Origins
----------------
Tropical Cyclone Rae was the eighth tropical cyclone to form in the
Southwest Pacific for the 2004/2005 season and the last cyclone in
the string of five storms in a four-week period that brought wild
weather stretching from Fiji through to the Cook Islands. However,
unlike the earlier cyclones in the sequence, Rae was a short-lived
storm that barely reached cyclone status, appearing to be merely a
cyclonic wave left in the wake of its intense predecessor, Percy.
The initial easterly-moving depression (TD-12F) can be traced back to
near 11.5S/178.5E at 28/2100 UTC. At this time, convection remained
detached from the centre with active convection evident only in the
northern and eastern quadrants. At the time, SSTs were around 30 C
and TD-12F remained under an upper-level (250-hPa) outflow with
relatively weak environmental shear.
However, early development appeared to be suppressed partly due to
the proximity of Tropical Cyclone Percy to the east. It was not until
04/1815 UTC that convective organization rapidly improved with the
development of a spiralling band pattern. Despite vertical shear and
diurnal influences suppressing development, TD-12F was steered by the
monsoon westerlies to the south-southeast at 10 kts into an area of
reduced vertical wind shear relative to the system and a region of
good outflow to the north, enhanced by the jet entrance region to the
south.
B. Synoptic History
-------------------
At 05/2100 UTC TD-12F was upgraded to cyclone status by RSMC Nadi and
named Rae as convection erupted close to the LCCC and gales encircled
in all quadrants. At the time of naming, Rae was located near
21.0S/164.5W, or approximately 200 nm west-southwest of Rarotonga and
moving to the south-southeast at 13 kts. This path was maintained
for the rest of Rae's short life. Peak intensity of 990 hPa and 10-min
avg winds of 40 kts was briefly attained shortly after naming. Soon
thereafter weakening commenced as Rae began to run into the subtropical
ridge located to the southeast.
At 06/1200 UTC Rae was located near 23.9S/161.4W, or approximately
180 nm south of Mangaia, and was downgraded from cyclone status by
RSMC Nadi as major convection became detached from the centre and lay
on the southern side of the LLCC. Strong shear from the mid-latitude
westerlies and dry air entrainment from the south rapidly weakened
Rae into an extratropical system. However, gales were maintained
between the stalling ex-cyclone and the high pressure ridge to the
south due to the increased gradient for a couple of days to come.
A graphic displaying the track of Tropical Cyclone Rae may be found
at the following link:
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/database/tc_besttracks_graphics/PACIFIC_FIJI/2005_12F_21P_RAE_BT.gif>
C. Damage and Casualties
------------------------
Prior to intensifying into a cyclone, the Australian-Pacific Centre
for Emergency and Disaster Information reported that TD-12F brought
flooding rains to parts of Fiji and Samoa. Flooding in Fiji in the
Suva and Nausori area of Viti Levu was reported as causing several
landslides and displacing several people.
Following upgrading to cyclone status, Rae maintained a path over
open ocean with no reports of casualties. However, Rae contributed
to the difficulties of life associated with a prolonged period of wet
and windy conditions through a broad swath of the central/eastern
South Pacific that was initiated a month earlier by Tropical Cyclone
Meena.
(Report written by Simon Clarke)
*************************************************************************
SPECIAL FEATURE - SOURCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
The purpose of this section is to list some websites where many and
varied types of tropical cyclone information are archived. Many readers
will know about these already, but for the benefit of those who don't,
I wanted to include them.
(1) Aircraft Reconnaissance Information
---------------------------------------
Various types of messages from reconnaissance aircraft may be
retrieved from the following FTP site:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/recon/>
Information regarding how to interpret the coded reconnaissance
messages may be found at the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml>
Links are also included to websites with further information about the
U. S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the NOAA Air-
craft Operations Center.
(2) Archived Advisories
-----------------------
All the advisory products (public advisories, forecast/advisories,
strike probabilities, discussions, various graphics) issued by TPC/NHC
are archived on TPC's website. For the current year (using 2004 as an
example), the archived products can be found at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/index.shtml>
Links to tropical products archives for earlier years are available at
the following URL:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml>
JTWC warnings for past storms are archived on the NRL Monterry website:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen.
I am not aware at the moment of any other TCWC which archives all
its tropical cyclone warning/advisory products for public access, but
if I learn of any, I will add them to this list.
(3) Satellite Imagery
---------------------
Satellite images of tropical cyclones in various sensor bands are
available on the NRL Monterrey and University of Wisconsin websites,
courtesy of Jeff Hawkins and Chris Velden and their associates. The
links are:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html>
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html>
On the NRL site, the link to past years can be found in the upper left
corner of the screen. For the CIMSS site, a link to data archives is
located in the lower left portion of the screen.
Additional tropical satellite imagery, along with looping ability for
composite microwave imagery for the Western Hemisphere north of the
equator, can be found at:
(1) For the Eastern North Pacific:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html>
(2) For the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html>
I'm sure there are other sites with available imagery available, and
as I learn of them, I will add the links to this list.
*************************************************************************
EXTRA FEATURE
In order to shorten the amount of typing in preparing the narrative
material, I have been in the habit of freely using abbreviations and
acronyms. I have tried to define most of these with the first usage
in a given summary, but I may have missed one now and then. Most of
these are probably understood by a majority of readers but perhaps a
few aren't clear to some. To remedy this I developed a Glossary of
Abbreviations and Acronyms which I first included in the August, 1998
summary. I don't normally include the Glossary in most months in
order to help keep them from being too long. If anyone would like to
receive a copy of the Glossary, please e-mail me and I'll be happy
to send them a copy.
*************************************************************************
AUTHOR'S NOTE: This summary should be considered a very preliminary
overview of the tropical cyclones that occur in each month. The cyclone
tracks (provided separately) will generally be based upon operational
warnings issued by the various tropical cyclone warning centers. The
information contained therein may differ somewhat from the tracking and
intensity information obtained from a "best-track" file which is based
on a detailed post-seasonal analysis of all available data. Information
on where to find official "best-track" files from the various warning
centers will be passed along from time to time.
The track files are not being sent via e-mail. They can be retrieved
from the archive sites listed below. (Note: I do have a limited e-mail
distribution list for the track files. If anyone wishes to receive
these via e-mail, please send me a message.)
Both the summaries and the track files are standard text files
created in DOS editor. Download to disk and use a viewer such as
Notepad or DOS editor to view the files.
The first summary in this series covered the month of October,
1997. Back issues can be obtained from the following websites
(courtesy of Michael Bath, Michael V. Padua, Michael Pitt, Chris
Landsea, and John Diebolt):
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/>
http://www.typhoon2000.ph>
http://mpittweather.com>
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/landsea/padgett/>
http://www.tropicalcyclone2005.com/>
Another website where much information about tropical cyclones may
be found is the website for the UK Meteorological Office. Their site
contains a lot of statistical information about tropical cyclones
globally on a monthly basis. The URL is:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone>
TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS AVAILABLE
JTWC now has available on its website the Annual Tropical Cyclone
Report (ATCR) for 2004 (2003-2004 season for the Southern Hemisphere).
ATCRs for earlier years are available also.
The URL is: http://199.10.200.33/jtwc.html>
Also, TPC/NHC has available on its webpage nice "technicolor"
tracking charts for the 2004 Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific
tropical cyclones; also, storm reports for all the 2004 Atlantic
and Eastern North Pacific cyclones are now available, as well as
track charts and reports on storms from earlier years.
The URL is: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov>
A special thanks to Michael Bath of McLeans Ridges, New South Wales,
Australia, for assisting me with proofreading the summaries.
PREPARED BY
Gary Padgett
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: 334-222-5327
Kevin Boyle (Eastern Atlantic, Western Northwest Pacific, South
China Sea)
E-mail: [email protected]
John Wallace (Assistance with Eastern North Pacific)
E-mail: [email protected]
Huang Chunliang (Assistance with Western Northwest Pacific, South
China Sea)
E-mail: [email protected]
Simon Clarke (Northeast Australia/Coral Sea, South Pacific)
E-mail: [email protected]
*************************************************************************
*************************************************************************
|
Document: summ0503.htm
Updated: 17th May, 2005 |
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