Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone IVY : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone IVY Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20040221 20:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 212021Z FEB 04//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
2. AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
3. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 16.1S8 173.1E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 211730Z4 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2S9 172.8E8. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
4. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.8S4 172.0E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S9 172.8E8,
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. EARLIER QUIKSCAT IMAGERY
INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER UNDER THE CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PUTS THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
5. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
222030Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040222 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/212021FEB2004//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z3 --- NEAR 15.9S5 173.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 173.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 15.8S4 172.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 16.0S7 171.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 16.8S5 169.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 17.8S6 168.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 173.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
320 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221730Z5
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25, 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. TC 13P IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CAUSING TC 13P TO TRACK
MORE POLEWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS,
UKMET (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS MODELS. THIS WARNING SUPER-
SEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 212030) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z4 AND 232100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040223 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z1 --- NEAR 14.8S3 172.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 172.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 14.8S3 170.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 15.2S8 169.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 15.8S4 167.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 16.9S6 166.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 171.7E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
280 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 230530Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 13P IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER
TAU 12, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CAUSING TC
13P TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT
A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS
MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z1
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 AND 240900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040223 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z4 --- NEAR 13.7S1 170.2E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 170.2E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 13.8S2 168.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 14.5S0 168.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 15.7S3 167.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 17.2S0 166.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 169.9E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
270 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231730Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55, 65 AND 75 KNOTS. TC 13P IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT TC 13P MORE POLEWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY MORE THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A STRONG CONSENSUS OF NOGAPS,
UKMET (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z5 AND 242100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040224 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z2 --- NEAR 13.7S1 169.1E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 169.1E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 14.3S8 168.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 15.4S0 167.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 16.9S6 167.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 18.8S7 167.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 168.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
245 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 240530Z4 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 75 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A FILLING UPPER LEVEL LOW,
APPROACHING TC 13P FROM THE SOUTHWEST, HAS CUT-OFF POLEWARD
OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 240539Z3 TRMM PASS AND
A 240710Z4 SSM/I PASS DEPICT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. TC 13P IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO FILL AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD. AS THIS LOW MOVES OUT,
OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH 48 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND
NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z9 AND
250900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040224 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z5 --- NEAR 14.6S1 168.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 168.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 16.1S8 167.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 17.8S6 167.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 20.0S2 167.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 22.8S2 168.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.0S6 168.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
190 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 241730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A FILLING UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING IMPROVED OUTFLOW THROUGH A A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH. TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UP TO 48 HOURS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z5 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z6 AND 252100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040225 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z3 --- NEAR 15.6S2 167.7E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 167.7E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z6 --- 17.3S1 167.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 19.0S0 167.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 21.4S7 168.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 24.3S9 169.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.0S7 167.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTH-WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 250530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
TC 13P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH 36 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WESTERLIES.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z3 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z0
AND 260900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040225 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z6 --- NEAR 16.3S0 167.8E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 167.8E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z4 --- 18.0S9 168.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 19.9S9 168.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 21.9S2 168.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 24.5S1 169.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.7S4 167.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90, 102 AND 115 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A 10 NM EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13P IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AND INTENSIFY THROUGH
24 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED WESTERLIES.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS,
GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z6 IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260900Z7 AND 262100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040226 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z4 --- NEAR 17.6S4 168.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S4 168.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z7 --- 19.2S2 168.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 21.3S6 169.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 23.8S3 170.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 27.1S0 170.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 168.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 260530Z6 ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. TC 13P HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND, DIMINISHED UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL
BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING
OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z4
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z1 AND 270900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040226 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z7 --- NEAR 19.3S3 168.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 168.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z5 --- 21.5S8 169.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 24.3S9 170.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 28.1S1 171.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 32.5S0 173.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 169.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261730Z9 ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 13P WENT THROUGH AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A BRIEF RE-
INTENSIFICATION PERIOD. AFTER 12 HOURS, DIMINISHED UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING POLEWARD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 48. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR),
NOGAPS, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z7 IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 270900Z8 AND 272100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040227 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z5 --- NEAR 21.3S6 169.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S6 169.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z8 --- 24.3S9 170.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 28.4S4 171.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 32.6S1 173.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 37.6S6 176.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.1S5 169.5E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 270530Z7 ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DIMINISHED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. TC 13P
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AND COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z2 AND 280900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040227 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z8 --- NEAR 24.3S9 170.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S9 170.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z6 --- 28.5S5 172.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 34.6S3 175.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 40.6S0 179.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
272100Z2 POSITION NEAR 25.4S1 171.2E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS ACCLERATED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. A RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THAT TC 13P STILL HAS A 12 NM IRREGULAR
EYE. HOWEVER, TC 13P HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DIMINISHED
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 13P
WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 24 TO 36
HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR),
NOGAPS, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z8 IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z9
AND 282100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040228 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z6 --- NEAR 28.6S6 173.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6S6 173.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z9 --- 33.9S5 175.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 39.9S1 179.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 45.5S4 175.9W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
280900Z9 POSITION NEAR 29.9S0 173.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTH-
EASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 280530Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77, 90 AND 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z6 IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z3 AND 290900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040228 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z9 --- NEAR 34.4S1 176.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 38 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.4S1 176.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z7 --- 41.0S5 177.9W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 48.0S2 173.2W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
282100Z3 POSITION NEAR 36.0S9 178.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS ACCELERATED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 38 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 13P IS WEAKENING
RAPIDLY WITH A RECENT 281858Z4 SSMI PASS SHOWING THAT THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF A NOW
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BY APPROXIMATELY
TWO DEGREES. THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z9 IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 290900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20040229 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (IVY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z7 --- NEAR 40.3S7 178.5W1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 37 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 40.3S7 178.5W1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z0 --- 45.7S6 173.3W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
290900Z0 POSITION NEAR 41.7S2 177.2W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (IVY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
EASTWARD AT 37 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 290530Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL. TC 13P IS WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AND HAS TRANSITIONED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NOGAPS, AND
NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290600Z7 IS 28 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_ivy_jtwc_advisories.htm
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