Updated: 17 June 2020
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone STAN : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2015-2016 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone STAN Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20160128 10:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3S 117.6E TO 19.5S 117.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280920Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 117.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
117.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 117.3E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY IMPROVING SPIRAL BANDING WITH CENTRAL
CONVECTION FORMING OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
A 280856Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. CURRENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 28 TO 32 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS. DUE TO THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND LOWER VWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291030Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160129 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281021Z JAN 16//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 117.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 117.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.4S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.5S 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.1S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 23.3S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 117.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A RECENT 290057Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED METOP-B IMAGE AND
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CORRESPONDING DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S
IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY
THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WILL REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE, ALLOWING 09S TO FURTHER INTENSIFY
LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. TC 09S MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 281030Z JAN 16
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 281030).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160129 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 17.8S 117.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 117.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 18.6S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.6S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.9S 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 117.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD COLD DENSE OVERCAST
WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE OBSCURRED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 290144Z HIGH RESOLUTION BYU ASCAT PRODUCT
DEPICTS 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS, AND PROVIDES
A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE STORM STRUCTURE. THE CURRENT POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON AGENCY FIXES AND SUPPORTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEING OFFSET BY STRONG
(30 KNOTS) DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HOWEVER, THE VWS IS
LIKELY LESS AT THE CURRENT MID-LEVEL STORM DEPTH. TC 09S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST, AND WILL REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC STAN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
60 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL GIVEN THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, GIVING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z,
300300Z, AND 300900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160129 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 118.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 118.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.1S 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.6S 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 22.7S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.5S 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 118.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 131 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD COLD DENSE OVERCAST WITH TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291129Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND AMBIGUOUS LLCC. A
COMPARISON WITH THE 91 GHZ CHANNEL SUGGESTS THE VORTEX IS TILTED TO
THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). DUE TO INCREASED AGENCY FIX UNCERTAINTY, THE CURRENT POSITON
IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE PASS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES
T3.0 DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BEING OFFSET BY STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, AND WILL
REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES VWS SHOULD RELAX PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO AROUND 55 TO 60 KNOTS.
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, GIVING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND
301500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160129 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 18.0S 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 118.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.0S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.8S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 23.2S 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 26.2S 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 118.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (STAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM NORTH
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291759Z NOAA-19
89 GHZ IMAGE ALSO REFLECTS THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH
THE CENTER NOW LOCATED WITHIN THE CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING.
THEREFORE, THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES, RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATES OF 53 TO 55 KNOTS, AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM ROWLEY
SHOALS SHOWING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 45 KNOTS GUSTING
AS HIGH 59 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 30 TO 32C.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TC STAN CONTINUING TO
MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, MAKING
LANDFALL JUST EAST OF PORT HEDLAND AROUND TAU 18. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 70 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, VWS, AND SSTS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. TC 09S IS THEN
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 18.3S 118.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 118.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.6S 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.7S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 24.4S 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 118.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (STAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH
OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 292241Z SSMIS
91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60
KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55
KNOTS) TO T4.0 (65 KNOTS), CONSISTENT WITH A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 58 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT
WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 30 TO 32C. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON TC STAN CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL
JUST EAST OF PORT HEDLAND AFTER TAU 12. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO 70 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
VWS, AND SSTS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. TC 09S IS THEN EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160130 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 118.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 118.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.2S 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.6S 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.9S 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 119.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM NORTH OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (STAN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
RAGGED EYE FEATURE AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BUILDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND A THIN BAND STREAMING FROM COASTAL AUSTRALIA
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF TC 09S. POSITIONING IS BASED ON
THE PORT HEDLAND RADAR ANIMATION AND THE MSI. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 65 KTS DUE TO THE FORMATION OF THE WEAKLY DEFINED EYE
AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF ALL INDICATING T4.0
(65 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 30 TO 32C. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON TC STAN CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL
JUST EAST OF PORT HEDLAND AROUND TAU 12. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO 70 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
VWS, AND SSTS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. TC 09S IS THEN EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.1S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 23.9S 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 27.4S 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 119.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE FLARE OF CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH OVERSHOOTING
TOPS AND BY TRACKING THESE FEATURES IN THE SUBSEQUENT ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) ALONG WITH THE RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT HEDLAND
LEADS TO GOOD CONFIDENCE IN POSITIONING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 65 KNOTS AS OVERALL
STRUCTURE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REMAIN AT T4.0.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONSISTENTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 30 TO 32C. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON TC STAN CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, MAKING LANDFALL
JUST EAST OF PORT HEDLAND IN THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN UPON LANDFALL AND WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
BY TAU 36. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER LAND
AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20160130 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (STAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 20.1S 119.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 119.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.4S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.7S 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 119.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (STAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 52 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH WARMING CLOUD-TOPS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT
HEDLAND, AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA AROUND THE AREA INDICATE THE SYSTEM
CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF PARDOO, AUSTRALIA AROUND 18Z.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS, BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWING 40 TO 50 KNOT WIND GUSTS REPORTED AT
BEDOUT ISLAND. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST. TC STAN IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 301800Z IS 12 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
|
Document: tropical_cyclone_stan_jtwc_advisories.htm
Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
|