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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Thursday, 18 November 1999 |
From Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 Greg Spencer [hawk at iinet.net.au] latest pics finally up
002 Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au] latest pics finally up
003 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] latest pics finally up
004 Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu] supercell motion (fwd)
005 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] latest pics finally up
006 "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com] AVN is down
007 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] supercell motion (fwd)
008 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] latest pics finally up
009 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] supercell motion (fwd)
010 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Severe flooding in lower South Island
011 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] supercell motion (fwd)
012 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] supercell motion (fwd)
013 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] End of Year chase meeting Thursday night
014 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] supercell motion (fwd)
015 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. AVN is down
016 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] supercell motion (fwd)
017 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] supercell motion (fwd)
018 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] supercell motion (fwd)
019 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] supercell motion (fwd)
020 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] supercell motion (fwd)
021 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] supercell motion (fwd)
022 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] supercell motion (fwd)
023 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] supercell motion (fwd)
024 Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net] BWER
025 "Andrew McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au] End of Year chase meeting Thursday night
026 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] supercell motion (fwd)
027 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] End of Year chase meeting Thursday night
028 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] End of Year chase meeting Thursday night
029 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] supercell motion (fwd)
030 "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com] BWER
031 Paul.Mossman at DWNSPCRT.OCA.nt.gov.au End of Year chase meeting Thursday night
032 Paul Graham [tornado at hobbiton.org] supercell motion (fwd)]
033 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] N and NW Sydney hailstorm
034 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] End of Year chase meeting Thursday night
035 Paul.Mossman at DWNSPCRT.OCA.nt.gov.au Finally Going to get a Storm!!
036 "Rob & Mimi Lord" [robmimilord at ozemail.com.au Waterspout off Newcastle
037 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] End of Year chase meeting Thursday night
038 Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] Finally Going to get a Storm!!
039 Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] Great Rain totals last night til 9am this morning
040 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Finally Going to get a Storm!!
041 Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] Finally Going to get a Storm!!
042 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] supercell motion (fwd)
043 Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au] Finally Going to get a Storm!!
044 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Finally Going to get a Storm!!
045 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] Waterspout off Newcastle. Is this heaven!
046 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Finally Going to get a Storm!!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 22:13:02 +0800
From: Greg Spencer [hawk at iinet.net.au]
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Subject: aus-wx: latest pics finally up
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Hey There
I got my latest roll of pics developed finally. Cant believe it took me
so long. Well, it was worth the wait :-)
here's the URL
http://www.geocities.com/~racwa/temp/
Enjoy :-)
Regards
Greg
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002
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 00:32:38 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at flatrate.net.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: latest pics finally up
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Hey Greg, Everyone..
Some great pictures in there! These pictures are very similar to the
storms i photographed on October 24 in SE QLD.. hopefully my pictures
will come out as good as yours have..
Greg Spencer wrote:
>
> Hey There
>
> I got my latest roll of pics developed finally. Cant believe it took me
> so long. Well, it was worth the wait :-)
>
> here's the URL
>
> http://www.geocities.com/~racwa/temp/
>
> Enjoy :-)
>
> Regards
>
> Greg
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003
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 14:51:08 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
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Ben Quinn wrote:
> Hey Greg, Everyone..
>
> Some great pictures in there!
Not bad at all (:
Les(UK)
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004
From: Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 15:33:25 +0000 (GMT)
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Hi all,
----- Forwarded message from Michael Thompson -----
[snip]
The geography of the
Australian coastline is totally different to east coast USA, we have a very
narrow coastal plain, in the Illawarra, none! . We also have the presence of
a dry continental air source very close to the coast, just west of the
divide, or sometimes as a pseudo dry line passing eastwards over the coast.
In eastern USA the humidity is often higher 100km inland than even on the
coast. I hope I am sprouting rubbish, let our US friend s correct me if I
am.
----- End of forwarded message from Michael Thompson -----
I wonder whether Michael is onto something of relevance here.
In the Plains states of the US the dryline puts a distinct western
limit to supercellular activity. You know when you are west of it;
the skies are mainly clear, the flow is SW and even pre-existing
towering Cu look like they're getting ready for bed. Iff a similar
dryline in NSW/QLD is located closish to the coast, this would
restrict an otherwise vast chase territory to a relatively narrow
strip along the coast.
Has anyone on this list ever chased / observed supercells significantly west
of the line Toowoomba - Moree - Dubbo?
Mr Curiosity
--
------------------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
Postdoctoral Research Associate
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
State University of New York at Albany
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
phone: (518) 442-4273 fax: (518) 442-4494
spatz at atmos.albany.edu
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
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005
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 10:41:50 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: latest pics finally up
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Greg:
> Enjoy :-)
I will join the long chorus of applause! Great pics! I assume that all
the photos are facing east or some variation of east, except, assuming the
earth rotates the same direction in the southern hemisphere , for the
wonderful sunset, of course. Do you know the time differences between
photo's and the approximate distance to the storms?
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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006
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From: "Halden Boyd" [haldenboyd at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: AVN is down
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 10:48:46 PST
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Just a note to those who use AVN at the ASWA site....data is temporarily
unavailable.....looks like it's back to sticking the finger out the window
and watching the ants in the garden!
______________________________________________________
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007
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Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 07:01:53 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
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Hi,
In terms of the dry lines, even though I have not chased a very good
example of one, I do think that trough lines are similar to dry lines.
These do occur regularly in some years but not as often in others years.
However, it is the case when there is very high dew points on one side and
very dry air on the other side that make things more interesting.
Now I have observed such lines in the past where it is distinctly visible.
In other words, you can see the moisture haze get cleared away from the
clearer drier air following. I wasn't chasing back then but I would assume
that such lines facing SE-NW extended right along to even west of Moree and
Tamworth regions, together with the severe thunderstorms that were observed
right along it. A good example of such lines I have observed are (even
though the haze difference can't be seen):
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1993/102
5jd13.jpg
another situation
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1995/121
8jd13.jpg
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1995/121
8jd15.jpg same day as above
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1995/121
8mb15.jpg same day as above. This situation had such a dew point change
that my lips began to blister!!! I normally don't complain so much.
and yet another example (but not as classic a line)
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1994/021
6jd02.jpg
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1994/021
6jd03.jpg
Now at least the first two examples had giant hail events reported anywhere
right along the line through to N-NE NSW. I appologise for those who have
seen these and heard me go on about these in the past but it was just for
interest's sake.
I hope we will be able to chase some of these in the inland areas during
the major chase.
Jimmy Deguara
At 15:33 17/11/99 +0000, you wrote:
>Hi all,
>
>----- Forwarded message from Michael Thompson -----
>
>[snip]
>
>The geography of the
>Australian coastline is totally different to east coast USA, we have a very
>narrow coastal plain, in the Illawarra, none! . We also have the presence of
>a dry continental air source very close to the coast, just west of the
>divide, or sometimes as a pseudo dry line passing eastwards over the coast.
>In eastern USA the humidity is often higher 100km inland than even on the
>coast. I hope I am sprouting rubbish, let our US friend s correct me if I
>am.
>
>----- End of forwarded message from Michael Thompson -----
>
>I wonder whether Michael is onto something of relevance here.
>In the Plains states of the US the dryline puts a distinct western
>limit to supercellular activity. You know when you are west of it;
>the skies are mainly clear, the flow is SW and even pre-existing
>towering Cu look like they're getting ready for bed. Iff a similar
>dryline in NSW/QLD is located closish to the coast, this would
>restrict an otherwise vast chase territory to a relatively narrow
>strip along the coast.
>
>Has anyone on this list ever chased / observed supercells significantly west
>of the line Toowoomba - Moree - Dubbo?
>
>Mr Curiosity
>
>--
>------------------------------------------------------
>Harald Richter
>Postdoctoral Research Associate
>Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
>State University of New York at Albany
>1400 Washington Avenue
>Albany, NY 12222
>phone: (518) 442-4273 fax: (518) 442-4494
>spatz at atmos.albany.edu
>http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
>------------------------------------------------------
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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008
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Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 07:07:42 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: latest pics finally up
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Nice example of a trough line retreating westwards as the trough develops
further west near Perth. I recall the LI on that day was supposed to be
around the -6 and the conditions perfect for great storms with dry air aloft.
Excellent stuff.
Jimmy Deguara
At 22:13 17/11/99 +0800, you wrote:
>Hey There
>
>I got my latest roll of pics developed finally. Cant believe it took me
>so long. Well, it was worth the wait :-)
>
>here's the URL
>
>http://www.geocities.com/~racwa/temp/
>
>Enjoy :-)
>
>Regards
>
>Greg
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009
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 16:58:34 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
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Jimmy Deguara and all:
Jimmy included this example:
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1995/12
1
8mb15.jpg
Note the relatively thick anvil, but more importantly the amorphus gray,
featureless, character under the anvil to the left of the tower and
overshooting dome. This is the decent of precip from the anvil into the
the storm relative environmental flow approaching the storm. If a radar
were to sample this storm via a volume scan, it would detect a rather
extensive WER and echo overhang. These features are an indication of a
severe storm. It is created by the intense divergence at storm summit. In
a study, (Lemon, L. R. and D. W. Burgess, 1980: Magnitude and implications
of high speed outflow at severe storm summits. Preprints, 19th Conf. on
Radar Meteorology, Boston, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 364-368), we documented a
change in velocity across the divergence signature at storm summit in one
storm of 154 m/s (or 554 km/hr or 302 kts) and in another of 157 m/s. The
result is that this very strong outflow transports large quantities of
precip up-shear into the strong, storm relative flow approaching the storm.
This precip then leaves the anvil and falls passively into the ambient
winds forming what Browning called the slopping echo overhang which results
in the Weak Echo Region beneath. These storms produced 5 to 11 cm diameter
hail and tornadoes.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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010
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Severe flooding in lower South Island
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 09:24:43 +1100 (EST)
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> An active front and trough, preceded by mild, moist northerly winds, has
> produced persistent and heavy rain in the Southern Lakes/lower West Coast
> over the last few days. This has now resulted in rivers and lakes rising to
> flood levels in the area. Many parts of Queenstown are now under water, and
> people have been evacuated from their homes in Alexandra. Cold southerly
> air undercutting the moist northerly air has today resulted in heavy snow
> in western Southland/Fiordland, with 25cm already on the ground at Te Anau.
>
> The front isn't moving north very quickly - it's still dry and warm here
> in Christchurch with a gusty northwester. We should get wet, cool
> southerlies by tommorrow morning though, and the weekend looks interesting
> for most of NZ - thunder and hail showers could hit almost anywhere.
>
> Ben Tichborne
I've been following this for a couple of days as well - an interesting
situation. NZ isn't the easiest place to get climate observations out
of in near-real-time, so if anyone does get hold of any rainfall
totals I'd be interested to see them.
How do the flood levels compare with January 1994? (I was in
Queenstown for the 1994 floods; it was decidedly odd to read in the
tourist literature about people rowing up to the bar of a certain
pub during the great flood of 1888, then watch people doing exactly
the same thing at said pub 106 years later!).
Blair Trewin
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011
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 08:27:58 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Harald and all,
Harald Richter wrote:
>
> Hi all,
>
> I wonder whether Michael is onto something of relevance here.
> In the Plains states of the US the dryline puts a distinct western
> limit to supercellular activity. You know when you are west of it;
> the skies are mainly clear, the flow is SW and even pre-existing
> towering Cu look like they're getting ready for bed. Iff a similar
> dryline in NSW/QLD is located closish to the coast, this would
> restrict an otherwise vast chase territory to a relatively narrow
> strip along the coast.
>
> Has anyone on this list ever chased / observed supercells significantly west
> of the line Toowoomba - Moree - Dubbo?
A dryline is often prominent during late spring/summer in inland
Queensland and NSW, out to as far as 1000km/600miles inland or more. DP
differences along this dryline are sometimes up to 15C/27F. I'm not
sure how this compares to the US drylines.
Supercells occur semi-frequently along this line, but DP's only reach
the high teens out there, but temps can get up to high 30's/low 40's.
Cap's are often quite large, but the lower atmosphere can become
super-adiabatic during the course of the afternoon, which is normally
when the development commences. Drylines generally occur when there's a
strong inland heat through, and especially if a cold pool moves over the
area. It is not unusual for cold pools of air to move over the region
in summer, in fact they often go through the region at their strongest,
and as they move eastwards they weaken, by the time they get to the
coast they're not in a very good condition. But the coast gets low-mid
(occassionally high), 20's DP's, so the presence of a cold pool isn't as
important as the actual surface trough is. Last year, between Jan 25-31
a large system like this moved over, with a cold pool causing a surface
low of 997hPa out there. But since the actual pressure around the area
was in the low 1000's, there wasn't much of a pressure gradient at all.
Because of the lower DP's, CAPE was not extreme, but averaged 2000-2500,
but still contained large areas of 3000-3500. LI's were down to -10 in
this area.
Shear in these conditions is normally sufficient for supercellular
development. There's been many very intense thunderstorms observed on
satellites, but the population density out there is virtually
non-existant! It's not surprising that severe thunderstorms are rarely
reported, with cattle stations out there being litterally the size of
small European countries.
It is however, a vast unknown, and is an avenue that I wish to explore,
as there's no doubt some very severe thunderstorms that occur out
there. I believe a similar process occurs on the WA Goldfields?
Perhaps Ira can shed some light on this.
Hope this helps!
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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012
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Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 09:40:23 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1995/121
8mb15.jpg
To give a more detailed description of the day, the above example developed
on the second band of a line of storms just OFF the coast. It was a trough
line with an attached low near Sydney. Les you can see the full sequence of
that day if you wish as illustrated below the numbers increasing mb is
Michael Bath's photos and also jd is Jimmy Deguara's photos.. Others on
the list should know our convention by now.
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1995/121
8jd01.jpg 01 02 03.......
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1995/121
8mb01.jpg 01 02 03 .......
I actually find your description as we always wonder if we are looking at
supercells. We never have confirmation unless damage occurs and a study is
done. Michael and I wished Sydney was 50km east that day. Unfortunately, we
had to put up with staying on top of Rooty Hill. Thanks to Michael's zoom
lens, we were able to get a close up of this.
Jimmy Deguara
At 16:58 17/11/99 -0500, you wrote:
>Jimmy Deguara and all:
>
>Jimmy included this example:
>
>http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1995/12
>1
>8mb15.jpg
>
>Note the relatively thick anvil, but more importantly the amorphus gray,
>featureless, character under the anvil to the left of the tower and
>overshooting dome. This is the decent of precip from the anvil into the
>the storm relative environmental flow approaching the storm. If a radar
>were to sample this storm via a volume scan, it would detect a rather
>extensive WER and echo overhang. These features are an indication of a
>severe storm. It is created by the intense divergence at storm summit. In
>a study, (Lemon, L. R. and D. W. Burgess, 1980: Magnitude and implications
>of high speed outflow at severe storm summits. Preprints, 19th Conf. on
>Radar Meteorology, Boston, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 364-368), we documented a
>change in velocity across the divergence signature at storm summit in one
>storm of 154 m/s (or 554 km/hr or 302 kts) and in another of 157 m/s. The
>result is that this very strong outflow transports large quantities of
>precip up-shear into the strong, storm relative flow approaching the storm.
> This precip then leaves the anvil and falls passively into the ambient
>winds forming what Browning called the slopping echo overhang which results
>in the Weak Echo Region beneath. These storms produced 5 to 11 cm diameter
>hail and tornadoes.
>
>Les
>
>************************
>Leslie R. Lemon
>Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
>Phone: 816-373-3533
>E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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013
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Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 10:11:47 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: End of Year chase meeting Thursday night
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi everyone, on behalf of Matt who had to go to work and Anthony, I would
like to propose that the IRC be used to discuss plans of the whereabouts of
chasing and when we should he out. I am just interested as I have no
information as to who is heading out say Saturday or Sunday or whenever or
even when the Vics are making the long journey up. Perhaps we can discuss
this on IRC tonight.
So the IRC meeting begins tonight say around 8pm. See you there.
Jimmy Deguara
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014
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 23:21:02 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Jimmy Deguara wrote:
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1995/1218mb15.jpg
It looks like an atomic bomb going off!!
Some thunderstorm - some of us are starting to get lost with all this
terminology, though.... is the BWER the same as an echo free vault????
Les
015
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 10:34:57 +1100
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: AVN is down
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Halden Boyd wrote:
>
> Just a note to those who use AVN at the ASWA site....data is temporarily
> unavailable.....looks like it's back to sticking the finger out the window
> and watching the ants in the garden!
Where's AVN at http:/www.severeweather.asn.au ?
As for AVN, NCEP Operations indicates nothing abnormal...
---Included NCEP Operations Report---
NOUS42 KWNO 171508
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
1505 UTC WED NOV 17 1999
171505Z...THE 12Z ETA IS PROCESSING AT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
POINT. THE NGM AND 12Z AVN ARE ON TIME.
KNEAS/SDM/NCO/NCEP
---End Report---
I've taken a look at the 18Z run at READY and it is minus
temp at heights > SFC. So there are problems with this run.
It is possible that there are troubles with new model output
integration caused by the cutover and trial of IBM
supercomputers at NCEP to replace the "hot" Cray C90's. See...
http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/director/supercomputer/ncep_ibmdelivery.html
Any alteration in procedure, schedule or output file format is
unlikely to be coped with well by dependant sites. For instance
with the NCEP supercomputer upgrade, many models were scheduled
for increased resolution. This would blow out model run file
sizes something chronic. Given that many sites are running to
resource constraints, it is hardly surprising that problems
are emerging perhaps caused by something like what I describe.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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016
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 18:59:14 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Thanks, Jimmy, for the explanation.
With my analysis, I would judge at least that particular storm to be
severe.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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017
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 18:53:08 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Anthony:
> It is however, a vast unknown, and is an avenue that I wish to explore,
> as there's no doubt some very severe thunderstorms that occur out
> there. I believe a similar process occurs on the WA Goldfields?
What are the roads like out there? Are there any? That would be really
fascinating if those storms and situations could be chased!
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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018
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 10:22:47 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Les,
Les Crossan wrote:
> Some thunderstorm - some of us are starting to get lost with all this
> terminology, though.... is the BWER the same as an echo free vault????
BWER = Bounded Weak Echo Region, I have drawn an exame of a BWER (a
rather pathetic one due to my incapacity in drawing!!!)
The vertical image of a BWER is here:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/VerticalBWER.jpg
To see what it might look like on 2D/precip radar go here:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/2DBWER.jpg
Note that a BWER is not to be confused with a WER (Weak Echo Region),
that is often seen in severe multicells (a BWER is a feature of
supercells, in fact Doswell argues that a BWER can only be achieved with
rotation).
A WER example is here:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/WER.jpg
I've drawn in some dbz readings for guidlines...
Hope this helps.
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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019
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 19:28:21 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Les(UK) and all:
> Some thunderstorm - some of us are starting to get lost with all this
> terminology, though.... is the BWER the same as an echo free vault????
My apologies. Yes, the Bounded Weak Echo Region (BWER) is the same as the
vault. That terminology was changed in the early 70's in Canada by
Chisholm, A. J., 1973: Radar case studies and airflow models. Alberta
Hailstorm, Meteor. Monograph, No. 36 Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1-36; and
Chisholm, A. J. and J. H. Renick, 1972: The kinematics of the multicell
and supercell Alberta hailstorms. Alberta Hail Studies. 1972 Research
Council of Alberta Hail Studies Rep. 72-2, 24-31. Others followed their
lead. BTW, an important point here.......non mesocyclonic, non
supercellular storms can also generate Weak Echo Regions (WER) and be
severe as well. The hail streaks in multicell storms tend to be shorter,
narrower, and to occur in an episodic manner in contrast to the supercell
storms. Hail size in these storms very rarely exceed ~ 4.5 cm in diameter.
I believe that when storms produce hail of 5 cm in diameter or greater in
the US, "giant hail", it can safely be assumed to be
mesocyclonic/supercellular.
Thank you, Les, for pointing this out. If I fail to be more lucid again,
which I am sure I will, please point it out to me once again. [S] It is
those Sr. moments catching up to me.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
020
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 00:37:55 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Anthony Cornelius wrote:
> Hi Les,
>
> Les Crossan wrote:
>
> > Some thunderstorm - some of us are starting to get lost with all this
> > terminology, though.... is the BWER the same as an echo free vault????
>
> BWER = Bounded Weak Echo Region, I have drawn an exame of a BWER (a
> rather pathetic one due to my incapacity in drawing!!!)
Thank you...
>
>
> The vertical image of a BWER is here:
> http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/VerticalBWER.jpg
> To see what it might look like on 2D/precip radar go here:
> http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/2DBWER.jpg
>
> Note that a BWER is not to be confused with a WER (Weak Echo Region),
> that is often seen in severe multicells (a BWER is a feature of
> supercells, in fact Doswell argues that a BWER can only be achieved with
> rotation).
> A WER example is here:
> http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/WER.jpg
>
> I've drawn in some dbz readings for guidlines...
>
> Hope this helps.
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> 14 Kinsella St
> Belmont, Brisbane
> QLD, 4153
> Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
> reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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021
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 00:45:49 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Anthony Cornelius wrote:
> Hi Les,
>
> Les Crossan wrote:
>
> > Some thunderstorm - some of us are starting to get lost with all this
> > terminology, though.... is the BWER the same as an echo free vault????
Thanx again - it ties up with this paper I'm reading - "airflow in convective
storms", Browning and Ludlam... BWER = echo free vault.
I was starting to get *very* lost with it all, us in the UK don't have
resources like these.
see u at the chase (?) Les(UK)
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022
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 11:42:14 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
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So what exactly is the difference between a WER & a BWER?
ie: what are the cutoff points? (excuse me for being slow)
Jane ONeill
Melbourne
----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Thursday, 18 November 1999 11:22
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
> Hi Les,
>
> Les Crossan wrote:
>
> > Some thunderstorm - some of us are starting to get lost with all this
> > terminology, though.... is the BWER the same as an echo free vault????
>
> BWER = Bounded Weak Echo Region, I have drawn an exame of a BWER (a
> rather pathetic one due to my incapacity in drawing!!!)
>
> The vertical image of a BWER is here:
> http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/VerticalBWER.jpg
> To see what it might look like on 2D/precip radar go here:
> http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/2DBWER.jpg
>
> Note that a BWER is not to be confused with a WER (Weak Echo Region),
> that is often seen in severe multicells (a BWER is a feature of
> supercells, in fact Doswell argues that a BWER can only be achieved with
> rotation).
> A WER example is here:
> http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/WER.jpg
>
> I've drawn in some dbz readings for guidlines...
>
> Hope this helps.
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> 14 Kinsella St
> Belmont, Brisbane
> QLD, 4153
> Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
> reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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023
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 00:59:36 +0000
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Jane ONeill wrote:
> So what exactly is the difference between a WER & a BWER?
> ie: what are the cutoff points? (excuse me for being slow)
Don't ask me - I'm still chewing through this lot ):
Entering data overload.... does not compute... (:
Les
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Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 01:04:55 +0000
024
From: Les Crossan [les.crossan at virgin.net]
Organization: Personal - ICQ 17296776 - note all times in GMT
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: "TONEX (Vic)" [tonex at rubix.net.au]
aus-wx
Subject: aus-wx: BWER
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
jane -
OK - BWER only forms in rotation, but WER doesn't need rotation (I
think)
Les(UK)
>From Les Lemon:
*snip*
Les(UK) and all:
> Some thunderstorm - some of us are starting to get lost with all this
> terminology, though.... is the BWER the same as an echo free vault????
My apologies. Yes, the Bounded Weak Echo Region (BWER) is the same as
the
vault. That terminology was changed in the early 70's in Canada by
Chisholm, A. J., 1973: Radar case studies and airflow models. Alberta
Hailstorm, Meteor. Monograph, No. 36 Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1-36; and
Chisholm, A. J. and J. H. Renick, 1972: The kinematics of the multicell
and supercell Alberta hailstorms. Alberta Hail Studies. 1972 Research
Council of Alberta Hail Studies Rep. 72-2, 24-31. Others followed their
lead. BTW, an important point here.......non mesocyclonic, non
supercellular storms can also generate Weak Echo Regions (WER) and be
severe as well. The hail streaks in multicell storms tend to be
shorter,
narrower, and to occur in an episodic manner in contrast to the
supercell
storms. Hail size in these storms very rarely exceed ~ 4.5 cm in
diameter.
I believe that when storms produce hail of 5 cm in diameter or greater
in
the US, "giant hail", it can safely be assumed to be
mesocyclonic/supercellular.
*snip*
More here - the Lemon technique is indeed the same Les Lemon that posts
to aus-wx... should we kneel or something???
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/svr/comp/up/spr.rxml
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025
From: "Andrew McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: End of Year chase meeting Thursday night
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 12:48:37 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet Mail 4.70.1161
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Hey everyone,
Macca here from Victoria. We have two cars heading off sometime friday
(most likely early). As to where we are going to go I have no idea so I
would greatly appreciate it if all who have the knowledge of conditions in
the other states (and Victoria) for that matter could come onto IRC tonight
and help us make the decision as to where/when/why and how we are going to
do this.
At the moment we could head N into S NSW for the slight chance of thundery
showers tomorrow arvo up that way and then head further N Saturday into
Central and N NSW for more chasing OR We could head NW into SW NSW which
seems to look like it may have a little bit of grunt come Saturday with
LI's of -4 or -5 and CAPE up to about 1000.
As all the models are very different it is really hard to know what to do
and a lot depends on how much cloud cover develops from the system. BTW -
NGP have the cut-off low down to 992hPa over Victoria all of Sunday - not
only may we see some high rainfall totals we may also see some strong winds
too.
Currently some nice Cu along the divide today with tops to about 10,000ft.
Enough.
Macca
----------
> From: Jimmy Deguara
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: aus-wx: End of Year chase meeting Thursday night
> Date: Thursday, 18 November 1999 10:11
>
> Hi everyone, on behalf of Matt who had to go to work and Anthony, I would
> like to propose that the IRC be used to discuss plans of the whereabouts
of
> chasing and when we should he out. I am just interested as I have no
> information as to who is heading out say Saturday or Sunday or whenever
or
> even when the Vics are making the long journey up. Perhaps we can discuss
> this on IRC tonight.
>
> So the IRC meeting begins tonight say around 8pm. See you there.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
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026
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 12:03:03 +1000
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Roads? Ya gotta be kidding.
Maybe a few 4WD tracks if you are lucky. Chopper might be the way to go.
John
>snip
Anthony:
> It is however, a vast unknown, and is an avenue that I wish to explore,
> as there's no doubt some very severe thunderstorms that occur out
> there. I believe a similar process occurs on the WA Goldfields?
What are the roads like out there? Are there any? That would be really
fascinating if those storms and situations could be chased!
Les
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027
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 12:32:01 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: End of Year chase meeting Thursday night
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Jimmy,
I assume you mean 8pm EDT, (7pm for us QLD'ers), but you might want to
clarify this.
Jimmy Deguara wrote:
>
> Hi everyone, on behalf of Matt who had to go to work and Anthony, I would
> like to propose that the IRC be used to discuss plans of the whereabouts of
> chasing and when we should he out. I am just interested as I have no
> information as to who is heading out say Saturday or Sunday or whenever or
> even when the Vics are making the long journey up. Perhaps we can discuss
> this on IRC tonight.
>
> So the IRC meeting begins tonight say around 8pm. See you there.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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028
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Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 13:42:29 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: End of Year chase meeting Thursday night
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Yes 8pm EDT, 7pm EST, 5pm WST. Bloody time zones.
I would also anticipate that an e-mail be sent to those not in the IRC
meeting of what was discussed.
Jimmy Deguara
At 12:32 18/11/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi Jimmy,
>
>I assume you mean 8pm EDT, (7pm for us QLD'ers), but you might want to
>clarify this.
>
>Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> >
> > Hi everyone, on behalf of Matt who had to go to work and Anthony, I would
> > like to propose that the IRC be used to discuss plans of the whereabouts of
> > chasing and when we should he out. I am just interested as I have no
> > information as to who is heading out say Saturday or Sunday or whenever or
> > even when the Vics are making the long journey up. Perhaps we can discuss
> > this on IRC tonight.
> >
> > So the IRC meeting begins tonight say around 8pm. See you there.
> >
> > Jimmy Deguara
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>(ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>14 Kinsella St
>Belmont, Brisbane
>QLD, 4153
>Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
>reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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029
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 22:06:49 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Anthony and all:
> Note that a BWER is not to be confused with a WER (Weak Echo Region),
> that is often seen in severe multicells (a BWER is a feature of
> supercells, in fact Doswell argues that a BWER can only be achieved with
> rotation).
Browning and others have demonstrated that rotation is not necessary to
produce the conically shaped BWER. Keep in mind that very few if any
updraft trajectories actually execute one complete turn. The BWER is not
created by rotation strong enough to centrifuge particles out of the
BWER....a common misconception. See for example, Lemon and Doswell, 1979:
Mesocyclone and supercell structure as related to tornadogenesis. Mon.
Wea. Rev., 107, 1184-1197. Moreover, we have identified BWERs in the
Doppler data many times that are not associated with a mesocyclone.
Further, I show in three papers that the updraft is only 1/2 the
mesocyclone circulation. See: Lemon, L. R., and S. Parker, 1996b: The
Lahoma storm deep convergence zone: Its characteristics and role in storm
dynamics and severity. Preprints, 18th Conf. on Severe Local Storms,
Boston, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 70-75. and Lemon, 1998b: Updraft
identification with radar. Preprints, 19th Conf. on Severe Local Storms,
Minneapolis, MN, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 709-712. and Lemon: 1999: Operational
uses of velocity spectrum width data. Preprints, 29th International Conf.
on Radar Meteor., Montreal Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 709-712. Thus, I
would be very interested in a publication by Chuck that states this. Do
you have the reference?
Perhaps I will be able to place some of the above papers on the web soon.
I hope so.
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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030
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 22:15:59 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" [lrlemon at compuserve.com]
Subject: aus-wx: BWER
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
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Les(UK):
Les said:
> should we kneel or something???
Please!!! Ok, you have made your point.......I talk/write too much!
Again, my apologies. [S]
Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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031
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNSPCRT.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: End of Year chase meeting Thursday night
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 13:17:42 +0930
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Whats that in NT time Jimmy??
:-)
paul.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
032
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 22:31:27 -0600 (CST)
From: Paul Graham [tornado at hobbiton.org]
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Chase here [Was: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Les,
Maybe you should consider coming out here for a chase?
- Paul G.
>
> What are the roads like out there? Are there any? That would be really
> fascinating if those storms and situations could be chased!
>
> Les
> ************************
> Leslie R. Lemon
> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> Phone: 816-373-3533
> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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033
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 1999 12:50:11 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: N and NW Sydney hailstorm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I went into the backyard at around 6pm and took a few pics of these
cells. It was unreal watching them develop from here. Such a good view
from my place in Blackheath. The sun lit them up beautifully on the
western side. Hope the photos turn out okay.
Lindsay Pearce
Jimmy Deguara wrote:
>
> Hi everyone,
>
> Well, it seems like that storm chaser convergence occurred today!!
>
> I had suspected that storms could develop today over the ranges and
> possibly just touch on the Sydney area.
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034
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Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 13:17:10 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: End of Year chase meeting Thursday night
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
8:00pm EDT (south east states)
7:00pm EST (Queensland)
7:30pm CDT (South Australia)
6:30pm CST (Northern Territory)
5:00pm WST (Western Australia)
Got to love our summer timezones:)
If you move between NSW and QLD a lot during the chase, you may have to
give your watch a bit of a work out too with the silly 1 hour time difference:)
Jacob
At 01:17 18/11/99 +0930, you wrote:
>Whats that in NT time Jimmy??
>
>:-)
>
>paul.
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035
From: Paul.Mossman at DWNSPCRT.OCA.nt.gov.au
To: " - *aussie-weather at world.std.com" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Finally Going to get a Storm!!
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 16:09:14 +0930
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Hey Everyone.
Looks like we are finally going to get a storm!!! Impressive build up to the SE
- boiling updrafts, nice cumuliform anvil and ominous black appearance -
without updated satpics or radar - cant tell what the severity is but it looks
beaut!!
Last night 4 nice cells way South - around Katherine, Port Keats and further
inland gave impressive lightning displays - and for a time where severe as both
had backshooting anvils and lightning almost every 10 seconds.
Will give updates when & if it arrives......
Paul at Darwin.
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036
From: "Rob & Mimi Lord" [robmimilord at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Waterspout off Newcastle
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 19:06:28 +1100
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Hi all,
Rumours of a waterspout off Newcastle this morning (around 7.30) were
confirmed by a vision captured by a surfcam on one of our beaches here.
Local weather reporter, Nat Jeffrey, called it a "waterspout or tornado" -
when will they get it right??!! You can see it at www.surfcam.com.au
Cheers,
Rob Lord
Charlestown
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
037
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 18:34:26 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: End of Year chase meeting Thursday night
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Jimmy and all,
The other thing you have forgotten, is the server and chat room! :)
There's about 100 servers out there, each with up to 1000 rooms.
So, on your behalf, come into #Weather on the Austnet servers. The
server address is:
wantree.wa.au.austnet.org - port 6667
I find this the best server to use.
If you don't have an IRC client, the meeting will probably start before
you get it downloaded, and setup. So goto
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/weatherchat.htm and that'll get you
straight through.
If you do have an IRC client though, I suggest you use that, as it's
much better than html chat.
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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038
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 18:31:50 +0930
From: Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.08 [en] (Win98; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Finally Going to get a Storm!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Update - great squall line approaching with lots of pink on the radar -
no need to chase - main part of storm heading direct towards me!!!
Lights of lightning seen now and solid precip curtain past the squall
line...... BOM expects decent line winds gusting to up to 40 knots -
should be great fun!
039
Paul at Darwin
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\vcard.vcf"
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 18:40:19 +0930
From: Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.08 [en] (Win98; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Great Rain totals last night til 9am this morning
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Howdy all - some very heavy rain yesterday during those storms -
Borroloola had 96mm til 9am
Centre Island in the Katherine area had 62mm - all received from the
near stationary storms that formed on the Trough Line that spanned half
of Australia last night - this morning.
040
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\vcard1.vcf"
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 19:13:48 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Finally Going to get a Storm!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Paul and all,
Paul.Mossman at DWNSPCRT.OCA.nt.gov.au wrote:
>
> Hey Everyone.
>
> Looks like we are finally going to get a storm!!! Impressive build up to the SE
> - boiling updrafts, nice cumuliform anvil and ominous black appearance -
> without updated satpics or radar - cant tell what the severity is but it looks
> beaut!!
>
> Last night 4 nice cells way South - around Katherine, Port Keats and further
> inland gave impressive lightning displays - and for a time where severe as both
> had backshooting anvils and lightning almost every 10 seconds.
One must becareful in the tropics with the presence of backshearing
anvils. Since you've just moved from Taree, to Darwin, it would not be
uncommon for the first thought to be "holy shit, look at that anvil
backshear!!!" But where Taree often has upper level shear between 70
and 120kn during thunderstorm situations, Darwin and the tropics has
very weak upper level shear. A quick analysis of last nights Darwin
soundings reveal the upper level "jet" being only 16kn, and averaging
about 10-12kn. Hence, an updraft/anvil moving up in the atmosphere
(especially in the high CAPE environment of the tropics), would hardly
feel the effect of this, and virtually (but not completely) act as if it
was not there in the formation of an anvil. Hence, the appearence of a
very prominent backshear might be observed.
In regards to severe thunderstorms in the tropics, while there is no
doubt they do occur, they are still relatively rare (except for rain).
A study on thunderstorms found that only 1% of Darwin's thunderstorms
were severe. Given they get an average of ~80 thunderstorms in Darwin,
this would imply only 8 severe thunderstorms in Darwin to be severe, per
decade. There are a myriad of factors that go against thunderstorms
being severe in the tropics, including shear, water loading due to the
very moist atmosphere etc etc.
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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041
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 18:54:38 +0930
From: Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.08 [en] (Win98; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Finally Going to get a Storm!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Latest report - winds now gusting to 33knots at the squall line with
decent bank of rain behind the main cell............. better get that
guage set up!!
042
Paul at darwin
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\vcard2.vcf"
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: supercell motion (fwd)
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 18:44:21 +1100
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Woo hooo.. I have the ultimate chase vehicle ready. I own a diesel 4WD, well
actually I would not call it ultimate but its a hell of lot more comfortable
to chase in than a car, even the bolt upright sitting position is less
tiring on a long chase.
On last years chase I took Jimmy D and Paul Yole for a detour through the
back end of the Barrington Tops area, we were on a unknown 4WD drive track
and came to a creek crossing, it was not to bad and mentioned that I hope
there was not too many more.....20 creek crossing later and it was getting
dark and we thought we may have to spend the night out in the middle of
nowhere. We passed a really funny little cluster of farm houses with the
name Barry, the movie Deliverance was in my mind. We finally emerged to
civilisation near Kerry Packer's Ellerston house stud.
Michael
>
> Maybe a few 4WD tracks if you are lucky. Chopper might be the way to go.
>
> John
> >snip
>
> Anthony:
>
> > It is however, a vast unknown, and is an avenue that I wish to explore,
> > as there's no doubt some very severe thunderstorms that occur out
> > there. I believe a similar process occurs on the WA Goldfields?
>
> What are the roads like out there? Are there any? That would be really
> fascinating if those storms and situations could be chased!
>
> Les
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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043
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 19:52:47 +0930
From: Paul Mossman [paulmoss at tpgi.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.08 [en] (Win98; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Finally Going to get a Storm!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hey Anthony & anors
> snip
One must becareful in the tropics with the presence of backshearing
anvils. Since you've just moved from Taree, to Darwin, it would not be
uncommon for the first thought to be "holy shit, look at that anvil
backshear!!!" But where Taree often has upper level shear between 70
and 120kn during thunderstorm situations, Darwin and the tropics has
very weak upper level shear. A quick analysis of last nights Darwin
soundings reveal the upper level "jet" being only 16kn, and averaging
about 10-12kn. Hence, an updraft/anvil moving up in the atmosphere
(especially in the high CAPE environment of the tropics), would hardly
feel the effect of this, and virtually (but not completely) act as if it
was not there in the formation of an anvil. Hence, the appearance of a
very prominent backshear might be observed.
In regards to severe thunderstorms in the tropics, while there is no
doubt they do occur, they are still relatively rare (except for rain).
A study on thunderstorms found that only 1% of Darwin's thunderstorms
were severe. Given they get an average of ~80 thunderstorms in Darwin,
this would imply only 8 severe thunderstorms in Darwin to be severe, per
decade. There are a myriad of factors that go against thunderstorms
being severe in the tropics, including shear, water loading due to the
very moist atmosphere etc etc.
>>>>>>
True for normal pulse storms but it doesnt really explain how TC's then
start - I mean they need all the same factors as severe storms do they
not - and TCS really are a band of these severe storms spiraling round a
low pressure that unite and become one hell of a storm.
I would like to read this "study" of yours - should be interesting -
Darwin BOM has told me that this area between Alice & darwin receives on
average 2 or 3 severe storms per season but little are reported due to
the expansive area and low population.
Also the Darwin BOM did a study on the Hector Storm which forms just
North of Darwin and have observed Tornadoes and other severe events from
this storm - I think it just goes to show that the Weather just cant be
labeled into "boxes", "acronyms" and "areas" because they as Les (USA)
says storms evolve and are hard to predict what they will really do
before.
On another note - 2 weeks ago hail was reported from a "1%" storm in
Palmerston - size of marbles.
044
Paul at Darwin.
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\vcard3.vcf"
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Finally Going to get a Storm!!
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 21:47:21 +1100
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Gee Paul you have only been there a week and already you are as defensive as
a local !
In regard to TC's, shear is probably the number one or two killer of TC's.
If the cooler water does not get when they head south, the shear usually
does and often when surface conditions are still favourable.
Michael
> True for normal pulse storms but it doesnt really explain how TC's then
> start - I mean they need all the same factors as severe storms do they
> not - and TCS really are a band of these severe storms spiraling round a
> low pressure that unite and become one hell of a storm.
>
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045
X-Sender: jra at upnaway.com
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Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 07:12:01 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Waterspout off Newcastle. Is this heaven!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Geeze just when i thought nothing could be finer to look out then my
poster of the "Hot Buttered" girl from Octobers surfing paper Tracks, this
comes along!!!!!! A pic of a waterspout with surfers in the foreground!!!!I
wonder what could be better. Mmmmmmm would it be possible for the Newcastle
ppl to arrange a pic of a guy pulling into a barrel, fully slotted, with an
F-5 down in bushland on the coast? Oh, oh and the Hot Buttered Girly lying
on the beach maybe? Ta
Ira Fehlberg
At 19:06 18/11/99 +1100, you wrote:
>Hi all,
>Rumours of a waterspout off Newcastle this morning (around 7.30) were
>confirmed by a vision captured by a surfcam on one of our beaches here.
>Local weather reporter, Nat Jeffrey, called it a "waterspout or tornado" -
>when will they get it right??!! You can see it at www.surfcam.com.au
>
>Cheers,
>Rob Lord
>Charlestown
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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046
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 1999 21:38:19 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Finally Going to get a Storm!!
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Paul,
Paul Mossman wrote:
> >>>>>>
>
> True for normal pulse storms but it doesnt really explain how TC's then
> start - I mean they need all the same factors as severe storms do they
> not - and TCS really are a band of these severe storms spiraling round a
> low pressure that unite and become one hell of a storm.
Actually - quite the opposite. A 100kn jetstream will tear apart the
strongest of TC's! It's often the main reason why we don't get TC's
travel very far south past 25-26S in Eastern Australia, as the shear is
too strong and the TC deterioates. The water is often still warm enough
to sustain a TC, Brisbane waters are often 26-27C during summer, yet
most TC's die from Bundaburg south, there's a strong gradient between
Bundaburg and Brisbane, with TC impacts rapidly declining (but this also
has to do with the fact the coast starts to curve back southwards more).
> I would like to read this "study" of yours - should be interesting -
> Darwin BOM has told me that this area between Alice & darwin receives on
> average 2 or 3 severe storms per season but little are reported due to
> the expansive area and low population.
You have mis-understood. The Darwin metro area has an average of 1%
severe thunderstorms. Alice Springs does in deed receive severe
thunderstorms, but this is under much better shearing than Darwin (in
the order of 1200-1400km south). This is in a better position to be
able to have thunderstorms form under that absolutely critical and
essential shear.
As for the report, I refer you to page 6.10 of the Bureau of Meteorology
thunderstorm forecasting manual. It has a stud (from Ryan, 1993), of
severe thunderstorms vs non-severe thunderstorms.
> Also the Darwin BOM did a study on the Hector Storm which forms just
> North of Darwin and have observed Tornadoes and other severe events from
> this storm - I think it just goes to show that the Weather just cant be
> labeled into "boxes", "acronyms" and "areas" because they as Les (USA)
> says storms evolve and are hard to predict what they will really do
> before.
Not trying to label anything, just stating the facts. While the area
around Darwin does indeed get their fair share of thunderstorms,
many/most of these are non-severe. Please keep in mind, that by
"severe" I'm refering to the BoM definition of:
- Wind gusts of 90km/h or over (wind gusts of 30kn or more are not
uncommon, in fact, this would be the "norm" in many "normal"
thunderstorms I'd imagine, especially in high CAPE environments);
- Rain accumulation of 25-50mm (or more) in one hour or less, no doubt
Darwin tops the list on this criteria;
- Tornadoes;
- Hail of 2cm or larger in diameter. Last year, I spoke with the Darwin
BoM, and they informed me that hail has never been officially reported
in Darwin itself, only residents phoning and telling them of "rice
grain/mushy stuff." The WBZ is just too high there, not to mention the
warm atmosphere.
I looked at radar from Darwin, a nice little cluster of cells there, but
no squall line? Perhaps it was an old image from cache? As no one
could mistake this for a squall line!
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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| Document: 991118.htm
Updated: 21 November 1999 |
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