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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Sunday, 2 April 2000 |
From Subject
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001 "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com] Hunter Severe Storm
002 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Tessi (22P) map animation updated TCA#3
003 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC 21S/HUDAH update
004 "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net] Does anyone know?
005 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Tessi (22P) map animation updated TCA#4
006 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Australian Storm Chasers page
007 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Storm Chase Birthday
008 Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au] Storm Chase Birthday
009 paulmoss at tpgi.com.au Last Nights / This Mornings storm
010 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au] Monthly Sea Surface Temp Anomalies
011 steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au] Monthly Sea Surface Temp Anomalies
012 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Last Nights / This Mornings storm
013 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Victorian rain
014 steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au] 1st quart totals
015 "McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au] Macca is BACK!!!
016 Andrew Miskelly [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au] Blocking Highs Return
017 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] I need help (And please don't say 'I know' )
018 Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au] Macca is BACK!!!
019 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Blocking Highs Return
020 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Tessi (22P) map animation updated TCA#8
021 Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au] Brief Report on the Birthday Storm Chase
022 Michael Scollay [mscollay at telstra.com] Monthly Sea Surface Temp Anomalies
023 David Carroll [davidkc at nia.net.au] Cyclone Tessie
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
X-Originating-IP: [210.84.13.1]
From: "Paul Graham" [v_notch at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hunter Severe Storm
Date: Sat, 01 Apr 2000 06:33:38 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Mat + everyone,
This storm was quite likely a supercell. It moved slightly to the left
(E/NE) of the steering winds (NW), lasted for ~2 1/2 hours, had very intense
lightning (from the lightning data) and produced strong radar echoes (pink
and red), also showing a bow shaped echo at one stage on the Williamtown
radar.
There were reports of violent wind squalls with trees uprooted and
corrugated iron lifted through the air near Musswellbrook (sorry if
incorrect spelling). Also reports of very heavy rainfall - but I'm not
aware of any hail or hail size (I would think there would have likely been
some hail).
- Paul G.
>From: Matt Smith
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Hunter Severe Storm
>Date: Sat, 01 Apr 2000 15:51:21 +1000
>
>TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
>
>SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
>Issued at 1509 on Saturday the 1st of April 2000
>
>This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
>
>Hunter
>
>Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area this afternoon. Some of
>these are expected to be severe bringing large hailstones, destructive
>winds and very heavy rainfall.
>
>A thunderstorm has been observed on radar near Denman is possibly severe.
>This thunderstorm is moving eastwards at about 40 km/hr.
>
>Matt Smith
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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002
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 00:40:34 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Tessi (22P) map animation updated TCA#3
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The TC Tessi map animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TessiAnim.htm has been updated to BoM
TCA#3. Will update in the morning.
Looks like Tessie is getting more organised and is continuing to head
towards the coast, perhaps to make landfall S of Cairns and N of Townsville
sometime Monday if it keeps on it's current course.
Have pasted BoM TCA#3 and JTWC#2 below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
>message.
>
>
>PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 11pm EST on Saturday the 1st of April 2000
>
>A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities between Cooktown
>and Proserpine. The cyclone watch between Cape Melville and Cooktown has been
>cancelled.
>
>At 11pm, Tropical Cyclone Tessi, Category 1, was centred near latitude
>16.4 South longitude 151.9 East, which is 670 kilometres east of Cairns
>and 630
>kilometres northeast of Townsville.
>
>The cyclone is expected to move west-southwest towards the coast overnight and
>Sunday.
>
>Gales are not expected on the coast and islands before Sunday night.
>
>People between Cooktown and Proserpine should consider action they will
>need to
>take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at 5 am.
>860
>WTPS31 PGTW 011500
>SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
>IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
>1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (TESSI) WARNING NR 002
> 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> ---
> WARNING POSITION:
> 011200Z4 --- NEAR 16.2S9 152.0E8
> MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
> POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
> POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
> PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 040 NM ELSEWHERE
> REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 152.0E8
> ---
> FORECASTS:
> 12 HRS, VALID AT:
> 020000Z2 --- 16.6S3 151.1E8
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 045 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
> ---
> 24 HRS, VALID AT:
> 021200Z5 --- 17.0S8 149.9E3
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 055 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
> ---
> 36 HRS, VALID AT:
> 030000Z3 --- 17.3S1 148.3E6
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 055 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
> ---
> EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
> 48 HRS, VALID AT:
> 031200Z6 --- 17.5S3 146.7E8
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> OVER WATER
> 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
> ---
>REMARKS:
>011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 151.8E5.
>TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (TESSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST
>OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
>DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6
>INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
>SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA.
>ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
>IMPROVING CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. A 011126Z1 SPECIAL
>SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
>CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP INTO THE CENTER. TC 22P (TESSI) IS EXPECTED TO
>TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
>SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA INTO
>SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A
>NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
>SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 12 FEET.
>NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020152Z0) AND 021500Z8 (DTG
>021352Z3). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31
>PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
003
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 01:13:44 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC 21S/HUDAH update
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id KAA29768
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Hi All.
Spare a thought for the people of Madagascar.
They have this rather intense cyclone that brewed off the WA coast about a
week ago bearing down on them, and have already been devastated by two
cyclones in recent times, including TC Leon-Eline.
The world's media have given little attention to this region that has
suffered more devastation than Mozambique from recent cyclones and the
resulting flooding.
I have pasted 2 of todays emails below, and the latest JTWC warning for
21S/HUDAH.
Regards,
Carl.
> This TC is benefiting from strong trade winds combined with low
>vertical shear and warm SST . It is resulting into constant
>intensification . The strongest TC in SH since 02S/JOHN . Both JTWC (sat
>bull) and MFR assess the int at T6.5. The forecast track brings it
>between 18/00UTC very near TROMELIN island which is a French island (15.9
>s/ 54.5e) inhabited by 3 meteorologists and flora and fauna. Very helpful
>the island has provided a wealth of info on recent TCs which have
>affected it since the 60s. Remember for instance that in 1986 ,
>13S/ERINESTA brought devastation over the small island with 115kT winds
>and gusts over 250K/H!! got some images of the peaceful island with sandy
>beaches before the monster and after and it is unbelievable !!! a bomb
>probably was dropped on the island..!!!!! More importantly Madagascar
>and its already beleagered NE region could be under very serious threat .
>The situation might get alarming there next few days.... Patrick
> Dear all, based on last track forecast Tromelin is in for a battering
>next 12h with a very close expected passage ( 20/30km ) south of the
>island. The TC is impressive and reminds me 20S/LITANNE in 1994 when
>that one was situated north of the twin islands( Reunion/Mauritius) about
>1� south of 21S. LITANNE was also very impressive with a very symmetric
>convection and small areal extent. 20S/LITANNE reached 130kt north of
>Reunion and made landfall over E Madagascar with extensive damage. Can
>not really see how Madagascar would escape the TC unless it changes
>course abruptly. Although will likely weaken somewhat before landfalling
>should remain a big threat and we must brace for very difficult
>sitiuation. The media barring CNN are very discreet!!!!!! it is a shame
>and if there is no miracle and 21S/HUDAH deals a severe blow to Madagascar
>everybody will react belatedly as usual. Patrick
>616
>WTXS31 PGTW 011500
>SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
>IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
>1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 019
> 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> ---
> WARNING POSITION:
> 011200Z4 --- NEAR 16.6S3 56.9E0
> MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
> POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
> POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
> PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
> RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 025 NM ELSEWHERE
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 070 NM ELSEWHERE
> REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 56.9E0
> ---
> FORECASTS:
> 12 HRS, VALID AT:
> 020000Z2 --- 16.2S9 54.4E3
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
> RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 030 NM ELSEWHERE
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 075 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
> ---
> 24 HRS, VALID AT:
> 021200Z5 --- 15.7S3 51.8E4
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
> RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 030 NM ELSEWHERE
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 075 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
> ---
> 36 HRS, VALID AT:
> 030000Z3 --- 15.1S7 49.4E7
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
> RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM OVER WATER
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> OVER WATER
> 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
> VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
> ---
> EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
> 48 HRS, VALID AT:
> 031200Z6 --- 14.9S4 47.3E4
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM OVER WATER
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> OVER WATER
> 040 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
> ---
>REMARKS:
>011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 56.3E4.
>TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST
>OF ANTANAMBE, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
>DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6
>VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
>BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS.
>ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY REVEAL THAT TC 21S (HUDAH) HAS
>STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS A 21 NM ROUND EYE.
>IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL HAS
>INTENSIFIED, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A
>010538Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC
>EYEWALL WITH A BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF
>THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S (HUDAH)
>IS FORECAST TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
>RIDGE BUILDING OVER MADAGASCAR, AND EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
>SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. A 010601Z8 ERS2 SCATTEROMETER PASS SUPPORTS THE
>INITIAL 35-KNOT WIND RADIUS, AND INDICATES THAT THE STRONGER WINDS
>ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
>EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE 30-HOUR
>POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 30 FEET.
>NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 (DTG 020151Z9) AND 021500Z8 (DTG
>021351Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (TESSI) WARNINGS (WTPS31
>PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
004
From: "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Does anyone know?
Date: Sat, 1 Apr 2000 17:46:41 +0100
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times are always GMT
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
----- Original Message -----
From: MSC1&2 [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: Aussie-wx [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Saturday, April 01, 2000 12:47 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Does anyone know?
> from: pcochra at attglobal.net
>
>
> Dear Jane,
>
> Can you tell me if you know of any television/video program past or
> present on Australian weather
Southern Exposure????
Les(UK)
------------------------------------------------------
Les Crossan
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W
UK Storm Chaser / Severe Weather Enthusiast
http://freespace.virgin.net/les.crossan/index.htm
Melbourne Storm Chasers (MSC) - Victoria, AUS
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) - AUS
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK
Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK
http://www.torro.org.uk/
Email: les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM)
ICQ: 17296776
------------------------------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
005
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 06:29:19 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Tessi (22P) map animation updated TCA#4
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The TC Tessi map animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TessiAnim.htm has been updated with BoM
TCA#4.
According to the BoM, Tessi has taken on a more SW track at 18 km/hr and is
intensifying, CP now 990 hPa (mb), with max wind gusts to 100 km/hr and
increasing.
BoM TCA#4 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
>warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 5am EST on Sunday the 2nd of April 2000
>
>A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities between
>Innisfail and Bowen.
>
>A Cyclone WATCH extends south to Proserpine including the Whitsunday Islands.
>The Cyclone Watch north of Innisfail is cancelled.
>
>Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, is slowly intensifying while moving closer
>to the north Queensland coast.
>
>At 5am EST, TESSI was located about 500 kilometres east of Innisfail and
>moving
>southwest at 18 kilometres per hour.
>
>Gales are expected to develop along the coast and islands between
>Innisfail and
>Bowen on Sunday night.
>
>Heavy to flood rains are likely about the coast and ranges.
>
>Details of Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, for 5am EST
>Central Pressure : 990 Hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
> latitude 17.2 degrees south
> longitude 150.8 degrees east
> about 500 kilometres east of Innisfail
> and 480 kilometres northeast of Townsville
>Recent Movement : southwest at 18 kilometres per hour
>Maximum wind gusts : 100 kilometres per hour, and slowly increasing
>
>People between Innisfail and Bowen should continue preparations, and in
>particular secure boats and outside property. Further information on
>precautions
>you should take is available from your local State Emergency Service.
>
>The next advice will be issued at 8am EST.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
006
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Australian Storm Chasers page
Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 08:24:22 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Not a bad idea Jane, especially the small pic.
Regards
Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: MSC [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: Aussie-wx [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Saturday, 1 April 2000 22:19
Subject: aus-wx: Australian Storm Chasers page
> Dear all,
>
> A complete directory of active Australian storm chasers has yet to be
> done I think - there are a couple overseas...are we as a group
> interested in something like this being made available on the
> net??....thoughts would be appreciated. For an idea of the sort of
> thing I'm thinking of, have a look at
> http://thedixons.net/stormtrack/whoswho.asp
>
> Depending on the level of interest we may look at doing something like
> this....anyone interested, and have thoughts about the sort of info to
> be included eg: photo, best pic ever taken etc.
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill
> cadence at rubix.net.au
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
007
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm Chase Birthday
Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 08:31:07 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Firstly happy Birthday.
Here in Wollongong ( I know moan, grizzle ) we were definitely on the wrong
side of the trough, not a drop of rain out of the event. Yesterdays storm
activity exploded in the upper Hunter.
Hope you got something.
Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Saturday, 1 April 2000 11:24
Subject: aus-wx: Storm Chase Birthday
> Hi everyone,
>
> Even though the models have not picked it up as much but I think the
> atmosphere is in a state destabilisation. We have had widespread
> castellanus all morning and now the middle layers are closing in. Sydney
> can get something out of this as the cold front is weak and seems to have
> stalled and perhaps the prefrontal trough is developing. I noticed on the
> satellite picture that some cells seem to b forming along this trough
> especially near Mudgee and NW.
>
> Mario and I have therefore decided enough was enough and we will chase and
> perhaps stay overnight for tomorrows ideal situation given the jet. We
will
> see what happens though.
>
> Mario's phone 0409 924 338
>
> my phone 0408 020 468
>
> Let's hope my birthday is a great one
>
> have a great day
> Jimmy Deguara
>
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> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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008
X-Sender: mbath at pop.ozemail.com.au
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Date: Sun, 02 Apr 2000 08:55:11 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storm Chase Birthday
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Jimmy and Mario are currently at Quirindi, (S of Tamworth at 9am) where
they stayed the night. When Jimmy phoned last night about 7pm they were
watching a cell with plenty of lightning.
At the moment they have a narrow rain band just to their W extending N with
clearer air further W and NW, and the main cloud band stretching ESE to WNW
is breaking up somewhat. Castellanus is widespread to the S and W. AVN has
LI of -5 and Cape of 1300 centred just to their W at 06z, jet is about 70
knots at 300hPa.
Please provide updates to them if you would like.
cheers, Michael
At 11:24 01/04/2000 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi everyone,
>
>Even though the models have not picked it up as much but I think the
>atmosphere is in a state destabilisation. We have had widespread
>castellanus all morning and now the middle layers are closing in. Sydney
>can get something out of this as the cold front is weak and seems to have
>stalled and perhaps the prefrontal trough is developing. I noticed on the
>satellite picture that some cells seem to b forming along this trough
>especially near Mudgee and NW.
>
>Mario and I have therefore decided enough was enough and we will chase and
>perhaps stay overnight for tomorrows ideal situation given the jet. We will
>see what happens though.
>
>Mario's phone 0409 924 338
>
>my phone 0408 020 468
>
>Let's hope my birthday is a great one
>
>have a great day
>Jimmy Deguara
>
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> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
==================================================================
Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
Wollongbar NSW 2477 http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
Secretary ASWA Inc. http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
==================================================================
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
009
From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 09:06:01 +0930
Subject: aus-wx: Last Nights / This Mornings storm
X-mailer: Pegasus Mail for Win32 (v3.12a)
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Hi all.
Last nights storm dumped 40 odd mm but more importantly still
had lightning every second at 5am this morning - thats an
impressive 11 hours or more that this baby spat out lightning.
Damm impressive for this late in the season.
Paul in Darwin
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
010
Date: Sun, 02 Apr 2000 00:42:01 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Monthly Sea Surface Temp Anomalies
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Just been looking at the SST Anomalies for March.
Does anyone have any thoughts on where that mass of warm water on the
east coast of South Africa might go?
It's roughly at 40 degrees south just now and looks to be breaking up a
little. If it heads south east, the lower than average SST'S down there
might, thankfully, diminish its impact on our Winter lows. Then again,
if it heads more to the east towards WA, it might lessen our chances of
decent cold cored lows developing this winter. Is that right?
I'm still learning here, (Thanks Michael Scollay and others for your
help), so hopefully I am halfway (or maybe a quarter?) to understanding
the vagaries of prospective winter conditions. There seems to be so many
variables needed to set up a good snow season...
Lindsay Pearce
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011
X-Sender: bayns at mail.broad.net.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32)
Date: Sun, 02 Apr 2000 11:48:33 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Monthly Sea Surface Temp Anomalies
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
lindsay,
can you paste a link for that please so i can see what your looking at?
steve
At 12:42 AM 4/2/00 -0800, you wrote:
>Just been looking at the SST Anomalies for March.
>
>Does anyone have any thoughts on where that mass of warm water on the
>east coast of South Africa might go?
>
>It's roughly at 40 degrees south just now and looks to be breaking up a
>little. If it heads south east, the lower than average SST'S down there
>might, thankfully, diminish its impact on our Winter lows. Then again,
>if it heads more to the east towards WA, it might lessen our chances of
>decent cold cored lows developing this winter. Is that right?
>
>I'm still learning here, (Thanks Michael Scollay and others for your
>help), so hopefully I am halfway (or maybe a quarter?) to understanding
>the vagaries of prospective winter conditions. There seems to be so many
>variables needed to set up a good snow season...
>
>
>Lindsay Pearce
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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012
Date: Sun, 02 Apr 2000 12:10:51 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Last Nights / This Mornings storm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Paul,
I look forward to seeing all the photos of the storms and lightning
you've taken over the past few months. When you mentioned the storm, I
went through my Darwin webcam archive (I archive Darwin webcam, and
download each new 2min update image). Unfortunately, I was disconnected
(unjustly), about 10 minutes after I went to bed last night (around
2:10am). But the right webcam actually caught some lightning. It's
nothing spectacular, but I thought a few people might be interested.
The URL is:
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/snapshotright at 04-01-21%3b41.jpg
paulmoss at tpgi.com.au wrote:
>
> Hi all.
>
> Last nights storm dumped 40 odd mm but more importantly still
> had lightning every second at 5am this morning - thats an
> impressive 11 hours or more that this baby spat out lightning.
>
> Damm impressive for this late in the season.
>
> Paul in Darwin
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
013
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Victorian rain
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 14:33:07 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>
> This may not mean much to those of you who have lately experienced
> thunderstorms, tornadoes or heavy rain, but in Victoria we have *needed*
> some weather and haven't been getting it. Tonight that's looking a bit
> different - there are currently middle level showers around the
> metropolitan area (10-20mm/hr to the east & in Bass Strait) & some
> serious totals in the southwest of the state.
Needless to say, given the operation of Murphy's Law, in the Melbourne
area itself this system proved to be about as productive as Australia's
recent opening partnerships. Melbourne itself got the grand total of
0.2 mm! Saturday, though, was the coolest day since November at 17.4,
and today's min of 8.4 was the first sub-10 of the autumn (although
there was one in January).
More useful rain about the western Victorian coast, with most of the
area within 50km of the coast from Geelong westward getting 10-20mm.
This is an area that needed rain very badly, so the falls will be
useful.
The possible cold outbreak early next week looks dead, except maybe in
Tasmania, but depending on exactly where the high behind it ends up,
there could be a bit of frost about midweek in southern Australia.
Blair Trewin
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
014
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Date: Sun, 02 Apr 2000 14:54:37 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at broad.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: 1st quart totals
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
hey,
some consistent rain over the first 3 months, especially towards the end of the months, some similarities.
January February March
1 0 1.5 13
2 0 0 2.5
3 0 0 1.5
4 0 0 0
5 0 0 1.5
6 0 0.2 0
7 0 0 0
8 0 0 34
9 0 0 38
10 0 0 1
11 0 0 0.4
12 0 0 0
13 0 36 0
14 45 0.5 0
15 0 0 0
16 19 0.5 0
17 2 0 0
18 0 0 0
19 0 0 0
20 0 0 0
21 0 0 8
22 0 2.5 1
23 0 0.5 0
24 0 0.5 0
25 0 0 0
26 0 0 0
27 4.5 2.5 6.5
28 32 42 6
29 0 19 1.2
30 8
31 1
111.5 105.7 114.6
steve , gold coast
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
015
From: "McDonald" [mcdonald at one.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Macca is BACK!!!
Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 15:10:46 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Heya everyone,
After a whole week without my computer (suffering
SDS and CDS = computer deprivation syndrome) I am now BACK!!!!
Seen 3/5ths of nothing in terms of weather in the
last week. Seems I have been more "under the weather" than the weather
itself. The last fortnight or so in Melbourne has been
bloody boring.
Unfortunately - during the process of the upgrade
to the computer I have sucessfully lost all my links so if people would like to
email me privately with a few weather links such as the 9-day weather
panel, AVN weather panel, etc - i have the main ones like MSC, BSCH, ASWA, ASW,
etc - THANKS!!!
Matt Smith - got your email and I'll get back to
you privately in a day or two.
Check out the storm track homepage for an
awesome radar image of the supercells on, in and around Dallas/Fort
Worth from last week.
Can someone please lemme know what server I am
supposed to connect to for IRC. I'm dying without IRC
ATM.
For all the Vics....don't forget to keep an eye/ear
out for the announcement of the first severe cold outbreak for Victoria - I
can sense that its not all that far away - the way the high pressure
systems are lining up ATM it shouldn't be too long before our first
decent coldies system.
For the QLD'ers....watch out - I'm heading up to
QLD for either the second last or the last weekend in May with work for our
annual conference so I will be lurking around Brisbane/Gold Coast area.
Nights to keep your daughters/sisters/girlfriends locked up are probably the
friday and saturday nights - hehehe.
Good to be back on line - TTYAL
Andrew McDonald
(Macca - MSC)
016
Date: Sun, 02 Apr 2000 16:37:55 +1000
From: Andrew Miskelly [amiskelly at ozemail.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I)
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Blocking Highs Return
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
The latest Synoptic chart shows what seems as if it will be the first
obvious blocking high for the year. In it's absence I'm sure the next
change would have been our first cold (as opposed to cool) one for the
year in SE Aus.
Hopefully this is just a side-effect of the fact that it is only mid
Autumn, and will not set a trend for this season (again). There is also
one of Michael T's favourite 'football shaped highs' behind it. Time for
frosts soon I guess.
Andrew.
--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
017
Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2000 17:16:47 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: I need help (And please don't say 'I know' )
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Well - after an extremely boring tutorial at uni today, I decided to
fiddle around with drawing functions... I was drawing a (version of
the) cosine function, and decided it looked like a tornado - I then
added the wall cloud, the meso, and eventually the entire storm. I was
quite pleased with my work until my tutor came over to see what I was
doing (other than not participating in the tute), and asked "What are
you trying to acomplish here?" Well - as if anyone would ask that, I
thought it was quite obvious, and normal My response was "I'm
drawing maths functions" My tutor then gave me an extremely surprised
look and said "umm, ok" and wandered back off and never talked to me or
came near me for the entire tute after that!
SDS again...
Anthony Cornelius
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018
X-Sender: astroman at mail.chariot.net.au
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Date: Sun, 02 Apr 2000 16:10:59 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall [astroman at chariot.net.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Macca is BACK!!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sorry Macca, didn't know you were gone :)
anyways welcome back
Andrew
At 03:10 PM 2/04/00 +1000, you wrote:
Heya
everyone,
After a whole week without my computer
(suffering SDS and CDS = computer deprivation syndrome) I am now
BACK!!!!
Seen 3/5ths of nothing in terms of weather in
the last week. Seems I have been more "under the weather"
than the weather itself. The last fortnight or so in Melbourne has
been bloody boring.
Unfortunately - during the process of the
upgrade to the computer I have sucessfully lost all my links so if people
would like to email me privately with a few weather links such as the
9-day weather panel, AVN weather panel, etc - i have the main ones like
MSC, BSCH, ASWA, ASW, etc - THANKS!!!
Matt Smith - got your email and I'll get back
to you privately in a day or two.
Check out the storm track homepage for an
awesome radar image of the supercells on, in and around Dallas/Fort Worth
from last week.
Can someone please lemme know what server I am
supposed to connect to for IRC. I'm dying without IRC
ATM.
For all the Vics....don't forget to keep an
eye/ear out for the announcement of the first severe cold outbreak for
Victoria - I can sense that its not all that far away - the way the high
pressure systems are lining up ATM it shouldn't be too long before our
first decent coldies system.
For the QLD'ers....watch out - I'm heading up
to QLD for either the second last or the last weekend in May with work
for our annual conference so I will be lurking around Brisbane/Gold Coast
area. Nights to keep your daughters/sisters/girlfriends locked up
are probably the friday and saturday nights - hehehe.
Good to be back on line - TTYAL
Andrew McDonald
(Macca - MSC)
019
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Blocking Highs Return
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 17:31:09 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>
> Hi all,
>
> The latest Synoptic chart shows what seems as if it will be the first
> obvious blocking high for the year. In it's absence I'm sure the next
> change would have been our first cold (as opposed to cool) one for the
> year in SE Aus.
, well, the first block in southern Australian latitudes. There's been
no shortage of blocks in the south Tasman around latitude 45 -
including two of the most persistent I've seen in a long time. This
is reflected in the MSL pressure anomalies (peaking at 6-7 hPa
in the Tasman in February).
> Hopefully this is just a side-effect of the fact that it is only mid
> Autumn, and will not set a trend for this season (again). There is also
> one of Michael T's favourite 'football shaped highs' behind it. Time for
> frosts soon I guess.
>
> Andrew.
Blair Trewin
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020
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 18:50:03 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Tessi (22P) map animation updated TCA#8
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The TC Tessi map animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Tessi2Anim.htm has been updated with BoM
TCA#8.
According to the BoM, Tessi has taken on a more WSW track towards
Townsville at 22 km/hr, CP now 990 hPa (mb), with max wind gusts to 120
km/hr.
Due to internet congestion, I will probably not be able to update till
around midnight EAS (1400 UTC).
BoM TCA#8 and JTWC#3 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
>warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 5PM EST on Sunday the 2nd of April 2000
>
>A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between
>Innisfail and Bowen.
>
>Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, is moving closer to the north Queensland
>coast.
>
>At 5pm EST, TESSI was located about 250 kilometres east of Cardwell and moving
>west-southwest at about 22 kilometres per hour.
>
>Gales are expected to develop tonight about the coast and islands between
>Innisfail and Bowen. The cyclone is forecast to be close to the coast early on
>Monday morning.
>
>If the cyclone centre reaches the coast as late as the morning high tide, a
>storm surge is expected with tides rising up to 1 metre above the normal level
>with wave runup and sea flooding in low lying coastal areas.
>
>Heavy to flood rains are likely overnight about the coast and nearby ranges
>between Innisfail and Mackay.
>
>Details of Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, for 5pm EST
>Central Pressure : 990 Hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
> latitude 18.5 degrees south
> longitude 148.4 degrees east
> about 250 kilometres east of Cardwell
> and 200 kilometres east-northeast of Townsville
>Recent Movement : west-southwest at about 22 kilometres per hour
>Maximum wind gusts : 120 kilometres per hour
>
>
>
>People between Innisfail and Bowen should continue preparations, and in
>particular secure boats and outside property. Further information on cyclone
>precautions is available from your local State Emergency Service.
>
>The next advice will be issued at 8pm EST.
>
>122
>WTPS31 PGTW 020300
>IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
>1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (TESSI) WARNING NR 003
> 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> ---
> WARNING POSITION:
> 020000Z2 --- NEAR 17.8S6 150.0E6
> MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
> POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
> POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
> PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 040 NM ELSEWHERE
> REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 150.0E6
> ---
> FORECASTS:
> 12 HRS, VALID AT:
> 021200Z5 --- 18.8S7 148.2E5
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 045 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
> ---
> 24 HRS, VALID AT:
> 030000Z3 --- 19.3S3 146.5E6
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
> DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> OVER WATER
> 030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
> VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
> ---
> 36 HRS, VALID AT:
> 031200Z6 --- 19.7S7 145.1E1
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
> DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
> VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
> ---
> EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
> 48 HRS, VALID AT:
> 040000Z4 --- 20.0S2 143.7E5
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
> DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
> ---
>REMARKS:
>020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.1S0 149.5E9.
>TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (TESSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
>EAST-NORTHEAST OF TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
>AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
>ON 012330Z9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
>INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
>KNOTS. A 011505Z2 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS
>DEPICTED A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
>ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EAST HALF OF THE SYSTEM. 200
>MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM SITUATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER
>RIDGE AXIS. TC 22P (TESSI) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK UNDER STEERING
>INFLUENCE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
>SOUTHWEST OF NEW CALEDONIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
>INTENSIFY BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE BY THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM
>SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z2 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
>021500Z8 (DTG 021351Z2) AND 030300Z6 (DTG 030151Z0). REFER TO
>TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
>HOURLY UPDATES.//
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
021
X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.2
Date: Sun, 02 Apr 2000 19:10:21 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara [jdeguara at ihug.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Brief Report on the Birthday Storm Chase
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi folks
Well due to the fact the storm chase spanned over two days, I thought I
would divide the results of the storm chase into Day 1 and Day 2.
Day 1
The Surface Lifted Index indicated nothing would happen but the satellite
pictures to me indicated a prefrontal trough with some convergence existed
just north of Sydney. This was confirmed on the surface synoptic chart.
Mario and I left around 12:45pm and headed for Mudgee. We tossed and
flipped whether we should head to the Hunter via the Putty or towards
Nudgee via Lithgow. In the end, we decided to go towards Mudgee and then
northwards from there. This way we would be in position for the real action
on Sunday. We passed through some steady rain around Kurrajong but the rain
basically eased off over the mountains. We headed north to Mudgee and then
Gulgong. Just outside Gulgong, we were going through the cloud and rain
band and got a view of a powerful updraught of one of the several storms in
the Hunter. Yes, we got a call from Matt Smith telling us of the large red
on radar heading towards Muswellbrook. We were not impressed by this again
"Haha you took the wrong route". We stopped and got a rear-end view of
this storm.
We pressed on and headed towards Coolah which I had never explored
previously. The road in this area was impressive and the chasing country
superb. We could see storms and large cumulus to our east as well as
isolated towering cumulus to our west. We then took the road east to
Quirindi and wow - great chasing country again. A nice large cumulus had
grown on the end of the cumulonimbus band and was towering into a
cumulonimbus. We took photos and video at various stages on the road from
Prema to Quirindi. The sun beginning to set exposed some excellent contrast
and colours on this and other storm bands.
As we neared Quirindi, the storms in the distance began to flash and it
became obvious that the storms were on the Northern Tableands. We took some
video footage of this with some great in-cloud lightning bolts. What a
great end to the day: and we had tomorrow still to go!!!!
Day 2
Bust
Jimmy Deguara
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
022
X-WebMail-UserID: mscollay
Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 20:49:51 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [mscollay at telstra.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-EXP32-SerialNo: 50000114
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Monthly Sea Surface Temp Anomalies
X-Mailer: InterChange (Hydra) SMTP v3.51.07
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>===== Original Message From Lindsay Pearce...
>Just been looking at the SST Anomalies for March.
>
>Does anyone have any thoughts on where that mass
>of warm water on the east coast of South Africa
>might go? It's roughly at 40 degrees south just
>now and looks to be breaking up a little. If it
>heads south east, the lower than average SST'S
>down there might, thankfully, diminish its impact
>on our Winter lows. Then again,if it heads more
>to the east towards WA, it might lessen our
>chances of decent cold cored lows developing
>this winter. Is that right?
By far the worst snow years occur when both the
Indian and Pacific ocean areas have warm anomalies.
Next worst are Indian and Southern warm anomalies.
Thus it follows that if all that warm water were
to lob itself to the west and south of Australia
which is where our cold fronts and cold-cored lows
come from, then it'll stuff up the snow quite a lot.
Remember my last post where I pointed that out? We
snow-buffs had better hope that conditions stay
neutral to slightly colder than neutral.
Anybody wondering why I havn't unsubscribed yet?
It's because I have a few days to tie up my
personal matters that my Manager has kindly let
me come into "work" to finish.
MichaelS
mailto:mscollay at telstra.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
023
Date: Sun, 02 Apr 2000 22:10:50 +1000
From: David Carroll [davidkc at nia.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.7 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Cyclone Tessie
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,,
Radar showing alot of intensity now.. here is the lastest Bom report..
IDW50Q00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with
this
warning.
TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
For 8 pm EST on Sunday the 2nd of April 2000
A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between
Innisfail and Bowen.
Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, is moving closer to the north
Queensland
coast.
At 8 pm EST, TESSI was located about 150 kilometres east of Lucinda and
130
kilometres NE of Townsville moving west-southwest at about 18 kilometres
per
hour.
Gales are expected to develop overnight about the coast and islands
between
Innisfail and Bowen. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between
Townsville and Lucinda during the early hours of Monday morning.
If the cyclone centre reaches the coast as late as the morning high
tide, a
storm surge is expected with tides rising up to 1 metre above the normal
level
with sea flooding in low lying coastal areas.
Heavy to flood rains are likely overnight about the coast and nearby
ranges
between Innisfail and Mackay.
Details of Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, for 8pm EST
Central Pressure : 988 Hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
latitude 18.6 degrees south
longitude 147.8 degrees east
about 150 kilometres east of Lucinda
and 130 kilometres northeast of Townsville
Recent Movement : west-southwest at about 18 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 120 kilometres per hour
People between Innisfail and Bowen should continue preparations, and in
particular secure boats and outside property. Further information on
cyclone
precautions is available from your local State Emergency Service.
The next advice will be issued at 11pm EST.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
| Document: 000402.htm
Updated: 03 June 2000 |
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