[Index]
Tropical Cyclone ANTHONY
[Southern Hemisphere Summary][Summaries and Track Data]
| Tropical
Cyclones
[Index] |
Tropical Cyclone ANTHONY [Southern Hemisphere Summary][Summaries and Track Data] |
WTPS32 PGTW 20110123 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 148.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 148.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.9S 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.8S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.4S 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.2S 157.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.6S 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.5S 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.2S 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 149.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ANTHONY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR FROM WILLIS ISLAND DEPICT TIGHTLY WRAPPED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THERE WAS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE RADAR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, NEARBY OBSERVATION STATIONS ARE
REPORTING SEA LEVEL PRESSURES AS LOW AS 997 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 09P IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC ANTHONY IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND TAU 36 WHEN A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE. AT THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW UNDER A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THEN TRACK BACK WESTWARD. TC 09P
SHOULD INITIALLY INTENSIFY DUE TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A
MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH, THEN
SHOULD STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
EXCEPT FOR WBAR, GFDN, AND UKMO WHICH CONTINUE TRACKING THE SYSTEM
EASTWARD. THIS IS UNLIKELY BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110123 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 153.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 153.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.4S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.3S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.3S 159.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.5S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.8S 156.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.9S 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.4S 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 153.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ANTHONY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A
231056Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ENHANCED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. A 231057Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
CONFIRMS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND REVEALS 40
KNOT WIND BARBS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 55 KNOTS FROM KNES, PGTW, AND
ABRF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20 KNOTS) AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TC ANTHONY IS RAPIDLY
TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. AS A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, TC 09P WILL
SLOWLY TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG HIGH SST AND OHC
VALUES AND MAINTAINS GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN BACK TO
THE WEST. WBAR AND GFDN REMAIN OUTLIERS, DRIVING THE SYSTEM
ERRONEOUSLY SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 48 INTO THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK BUT IS CONSISTENT WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT IN MODEL TRACKERS, WHICH
ARE NOW FAVORING A LOOP TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P
(WILMA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110124 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 156.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 156.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.3S 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.6S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.0S 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.8S 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.1S 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 157.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ANTHONY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHEARED 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE
WAS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE UNORGANIZED
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, ABRF, AND KNES DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
EAST HAS DEEPENED MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND CAUSED AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WITH THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, TC 09P SHOULD NOW CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BELOW 35
KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES,
THE LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND
TURN THE SYSTEM BACK WESTWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS STILL
POSSIBLE WHERE TC 09P WILL RE-INTENSIFY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING.
HOWEVER, WITH THE CURRENT MAGNITUDE OF THE TROUGH, THIS SCENARIO IS
UNLIKELY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z AND 250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P
(WILMA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110124 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 159.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 159.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.5S 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.7S 160.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.3S 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.7S 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.5S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 160.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ANTHONY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 221034Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND DEEP
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO RECONSOLIDATE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS FROM ABRF, KNES, AND PGTW, AS WELL AS A
241038Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 35 KNOT WINDS AT
THE CENTER AND 40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITHIN THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING UP INTO THE CORAL
SEA. TC 09P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING
MECHANISM. TC ANTHONY IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU
48 AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72 AS A
CUT-OFF LOW CAUSES SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND HINDERS OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN BACK
TO THE WEST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR WHICH DEPICTS A LATER TURN
JUST SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH TC 09P RE-INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO
SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OF THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS WITHIN THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AIDS
PACKAGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P
(WILMA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110125 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 160.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 160.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.7S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.5S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.1S 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.6S 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 160.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ANTHONY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09P HAS WEAKENED OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS AND HAS BEGUN TO SLOW AND TURN WESTWARD; MOTION OVER
THE PAST 03 HOURS WAS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED YET WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
SYSTEM. MSI ALSO SHOWS A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 242259Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS THE
CORRESPONDING AREA OF DRY AIR ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION
FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. TC 09P IS LOCATED
WITHIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS BUILDING OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE (ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, AND JGSM) IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN AND WBAR, WHICH INDICATE UNREALISTIC
TRACKS CONSIDERING THE BUILDING STR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFDN AND WBAR.
TC 09P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
REGENERATE AFTER TAU 60 AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MOISTER ENVIRONMENT EAST OF CAIRNS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251500Z AND 260300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110125 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 19.5S 160.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 160.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.2S 159.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 160.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ANTHONY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN
RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES HAVE COME DOWN TO 30 KNOTS. TC
09P IS COMPLETING ITS U-TURN WESTWARD AS A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH ASSUMES STEERING. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD,
VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN AND WBAR, WHICH INDICATE UNREALISTIC
POLEWARD TRACKS INTO THE BUILDING STR. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFDN AND WBAR. TC
09P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE VWS IN
ADDITION TO COOL DRY AIR ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTH, AS EVIDENCED ON
PREVIOUS MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY. HOWEVER, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL REGENERATE AFTER TAU 60 AS UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MOISTER ENVIRONMENT
EAST OF CAIRNS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 12
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (WILMA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 20110126 20:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6S 158.1E TO 16.9S 155.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.4S 157.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
09P (ANTHONY) HAS RE-STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S
157.8E, APPROXIMATELY 695 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL (U/L) RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO REPLACE A FILLING U/L SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR WEAKENING THE TC BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA. CENTRAL CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTER AS U/L CONDITIONS IMPROVE, BUT IT IS FAIRLY RECENT,
WEAK AND UNORGANIZED. NONETHELESS A 261133Z ASCAT SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED 25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS SHOW THE COLUMN BEGINNING TO RE-MOISTEN AS FLOW WORKS ITS
WAY FROM THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272000Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 20110128 02:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271951JAN2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8S 156.4E TO 17.5S 150.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 272332Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 155.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7S
153.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 155.2E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST
OF CAIRS, AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO RE-CONSOLIDATE
DESPITE IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
HAS REPLACED A TROUGH ALOFT AS FORECAST. AS A RESULT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS RELAXED CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTER. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE IS ALSO HIGHLY
DIFFLUENT WHICH HAS HELPED TO SUSTAIN THIS DEEP CONVECTION. A
PARTIAL 272230Z ASCAT PASS VALIDATES REISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT AS
WELL WITH SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290230Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 20110129 02:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280221ZJAN2011//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 155.2E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE EAST QUADRANT.
AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE AT 281054Z SHOWED 20-25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LLCC. HOWEVER, RECENT MSI AND A 282052Z TRMM IMAGE
DEPICT A MORE DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH WEAK SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING, SOMEWHAT ELONGATED, WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
ABOUT 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RELATIVELY
DRY, MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND LACKS SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE DESPITE
ITS LOCATION NEAR THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OVERALL
MARGINAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS SUPPRESSED ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE AND
WEAK ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
SIGNATURE, LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND POOR OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110130 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 18.3S 151.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 151.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.7S 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.6S 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 150.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ANTHONY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT TC 09P HAS REGENERATED. RADAR IMAGERY
FROM WILLIS ISLAND AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION WITH TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291956Z CORIOLIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT, ORGANIZED LLCC WITH A PROMINENT
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED, ENHANCED
BY AN UPPER-LOW NEAR 29S 167E AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING UPPER-LOW NEAR
20S 143E. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM MARION REEF, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, SHOWING SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 36
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12 AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 301500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20110130 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (ANTHONY) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 148.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 148.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.2S 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 147.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (ANTHONY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
CENTER MADE LANDFALL NEAR BOWEN, AUSTRALIA AT APPROXIMATELY 301200Z.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING
MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND 45 KNOTS FROM
KNES. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PROSERPINE, LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 40 NM SOUTHEAST OF TC 09P, INDICATE WINDS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS. TC 09P IS FORECAST TO TRACK FURTHER INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY
TAU 12. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P
(YASI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
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| Document: tropical_cyclone_anthony.htm | Updated: 31 January 2011 |